Irrational ExuberanceWith a new Afterword on the current state of the stock market, the ongoing debate over the "new economy," and the larger implications of "irrational exuberance." In this controversial, hard-hitting account of today's explosive market, Robert J. Shiller, a leading expert on market volatility, evokes Alan Greenspan's infamous 1996 reference, "irrational exuberance," to explain the alternately soaring and declining stock market. Shiller's unconventional yet persuasive argument credits an unprecedented confluence of events with driving stocks to uncharted heights, and he analyzes the structural, cultural, and psychological factors behind these levels of growth not reflected in any other sector of the economy. Now more relevant than ever, this analysis is both chilling and convincing-a must-read for the individual investor, the policy maker, and the investment professional. |
Contents
One The Stock Market Level in Historical Perspective | 3 |
1 | 5 |
The Internet the Baby Boom | 17 |
Copyright | |
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Amos Tversky analysts anchors appears assets attention average Baby Boom behavior Behavioral Finance bull market Chapter companies confidence corporate countries dividend present value earnings growth effect efficient markets theory evidence example expectations fact feedback financial markets five-year forecasts fundamental future gambling Herd Behavior historical individual investors infection inflation institutional investors Internet intervals investment Irrational Exuberance January Journal of Finance long-term managers mutual funds October October 19 overconfidence overpriced peak period plans Ponzi schemes portfolio insurance predict price changes price increases price movements price-earnings ratio profits Psychology real price real S&P real stock prices reason recent reported returns risk Robert S&P Composite sell share Shiller Social Security speculative bubbles stock mar stock market crash Stock Price Index stories survey tend tion trading tulip mania U.S. stock market unpublished paper valuations volatility word-of-mouth York