Regional Economic Voting: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, 1990-1999This study demonstrates that in a time of massive change characterized by the emergence of entirely new political systems and a fundamental reorganization of economic life, systematic patterns of economic conditions affecting election results at the aggregate level can in fact be identified during the first decade of post-communist elections in five post-communist countries: Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. A variety of theoretical arguments concerning the conditions in which these effects are more or less likely to be present are also proposed and tested. Analysis is conducted using an original data set of regional level economic, demographic, and electoral indicators, and features both broadly based comparative assessments of the findings across all twenty elections as well as more focused case study analyses of pairs of individual elections. |
Contents
INTRODUCTION | 1 |
ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND ELECTION | 22 |
COMPARATIVE CROSSREGIONAL ANALYSIS | 78 |
3 | 92 |
PAIRED CASE STUDIES | 126 |
THE INCUMBENCY HYPOTHESIS | 152 |
THE NEW REGIME HYPOTHESIS | 184 |
Borderline New Regime Parties | 211 |
COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS | 244 |
Extra Parties Included in Panel 2 of Table 8 3 | 274 |
POLITICS | 276 |
NATIONAL ELECTION RESULTS | 309 |
REGRESSION RESULTS | 319 |
ESTIMATED DISTRIBUTIONS OF FIRST | 356 |
PERCENTAGE OF POSITIVE SIMULATIONS | 375 |
405 | |
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analysis assessment candidate Change in Income Chapter Civic Democratic Civic Democratic Party Communist Party comparative conditional economic voting conditional hypotheses conditions and election Confident in Predicted Confident in Wrong context country where economic cross-regional Czech Republic decade democracies Democratic Left Alliance Democratic Party economic conditions economic voting hypotheses effect of economic election results electoral Estimated Hungarian parliamentary elections Hungarian Socialist Party Hungary HZDS included Incumbency hypothesis incumbent parties KPRF Log Population MSZP Old Regime hypothesis Old Regime parties overall paired case studies Panel parliament Percent Elderly Percentage with 90 perform better Poland Polish parliamentary election Polish Presidential Election Predicted Change Referendum Model reformed Regime and Old regional economic voting Russia Russian parliamentary elections Russian presidential election Slovak parliamentary elections Slovakia standard economic voting standard hypotheses Statistical strong empirical support Table threshold tions Transitional Identity Model Unemployment Rate unreformed Old Regime variables voters Wałęsa Yabloko Yeltsin