Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established Democracies Since 1945Voting is a habit. People learn the habit of voting, or not, based on experience in their first few elections. Elections that do not stimulate high turnout among young adults leave a 'footprint' of low turnout in the age structure of the electorate as many individuals who were new at those elections fail to vote at subsequent elections. Elections that stimulate high turnout leave a high turnout footprint. So a country's turnout history provides a baseline for current turnout that is largely set, except for young adults. This baseline shifts as older generations leave the electorate and as changes in political and institutional circumstances affect the turnout of new generations. Among the changes that have affected turnout in recent years, the lowering of the voting age in most established democracies has been particularly important in creating a low turnout footprint that has grown with each election. |
Contents
Introduction | 1 |
Confronting the Puzzles of Voter Turnout | 9 |
A New Approach to the Calculus of Voting | 37 |
The Role of Generational Replacement in Turnout Change | 59 |
Rational Responses to Electoral Competition | 91 |
Explaining Turnout Change in TwentyTwo Countries | 119 |
The Character of Elections and the Individual Citizen | 151 |
Understanding Turnout Decline | 171 |
The Turnout Puzzles Revisited | 201 |
The Surveys Employed in This Book | 225 |
Aggregate Data for Established Democracies 19451999 | 231 |
Supplementary Findings | 237 |
| 251 | |
| 263 | |
| 267 | |
Other editions - View all
Voter Turnout and the Dynamics of Electoral Competition in Established ... Mark N. Franklin No preview available - 2004 |
Common terms and phrases
Actual turnout analysis average turnout behavior change in turnout Chapter character of elections coalition coefficients cohort change compulsory voting cumulative effects dataset declining turnout divided government effects on turnout elec electoral cohorts electoral competition electoral system entered the electorate equation established cohorts established democracies estimate European Parliament elections executive responsiveness expected explain turnout findings Franklin habit of voting high turnout House turnout independent variables individual-level interaction largest party level of turnout low turnout majority status Malta margin of victory mean margin mobilization National Election Study newer cohorts nonvoting overall party ID past research percent Political Science Predicted turnout previous election proportion regression Riker and Ordeshook role social capital standard errors Statistics Sweden Switzerland Table take account tion Trinity College Connecticut turnout change turnout decline turnout variations twenty-two countries U.S. Presidential Elections United variance voter turnout voting age Voting age lowered young initiation
References to this book
The Oxford Handbook of Political Behavior Russell J. Dalton,Hans-Dieter Klingemann No preview available - 2007 |