The Book of Evidence

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Oxford University Press, Sep 20, 2001 - Science - 304 pages
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What is required for something to be evidence for a hypothesis? In this fascinating, elegantly written work, distinguished philosopher of science Peter Achinstein explores this question, rejecting typical philosophical and statistical theories of evidence. He claims these theories are much too weak to give scientists what they want--a good reason to believe--and, in some cases, they furnish concepts that mistakenly make all evidential claims a priori. Achinstein introduces four concepts of evidence, defines three of them by reference to "potential" evidence, and characterizes the latter using a novel epistemic interpretation of probability. The resulting theory is then applied to philosophical and historical issues. Solutions are provided to the "grue," "ravens," "lottery," and "old-evidence" paradoxes, and to a series of questions. These include whether explanations or predictions furnish more evidential weight, whether individual hypotheses or entire theoretical systems can receive evidential support, what counts as a scientific discovery, and what sort of evidence is required for it. The historical questions include whether Jean Perrin had non-circular evidence for the existence of molecules, what type of evidence J. J. Thomson offered for the existence of the electron, and whether, as is usually supposed, he really discovered the electron. Achinstein proposes answers in terms of the concepts of evidence introduced. As the premier book in the fabulous new series Oxford Studies in Philosophy of Science, this volume is essential for philosophers of science and historians of science, as well as for statisticians, scientists with philosophical interests, and anyone curious about scientific reasoning.
  

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Contents

1 The Deans Challenge
3
2 Concepts of Evidence or How the Electron Got Its Charge
13
3 Two Major Probabilistic Theories of Evidence
44
4 Whats Wrong with These Probabilistic Theories of Evidence?
69
5 Objective Epistemic Probability
95
6 Evidence High Probability and Belief
114
7 The Explanatory Connection
145
8 Final Definitions and Realism
168
Ravens and Grue
185
Which Carries More Evidential Weight?
210
11 OldAge and NewAge Holism
231
Jean Perrin and Molecular Reality
243
13 Who Really Discovered the Electron?
266
Index
287
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