Critical Transitions in Nature and SocietyHow do we explain the remarkably abrupt changes that sometimes occur in nature and society--and can we predict why and when they happen? This book offers a comprehensive introduction to critical transitions in complex systems--the radical changes that happen at tipping points when thresholds are passed.
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Contents
Introduction | 1 |
11 Coral Reef Collapse | 2 |
12 The Birth of the Sahara Desert | 3 |
13 Shifts in Societies | 5 |
14 Content of this Book | 6 |
Alternative Stable States | 11 |
21 The Basics | 13 |
22 Some Mechanisms | 25 |
103 Synthesis | 213 |
Terrestrial Ecosystems | 216 |
112 SmallScale Transitions in Semiarid Vegetation | 221 |
113 Boreal Forests and Tundra | 226 |
114 The Rise and Fall of Raised Bogs | 230 |
115 Species Extinction in Fragmented Landscapes | 234 |
116 Epidemics as Critical Transitions | 237 |
117 Synthesis | 239 |
23 Synthesis | 36 |
Cycles and Chaos | 37 |
32 Complex Dynamics | 42 |
33 Basin Boundary Collision | 50 |
34 Synthesis | 54 |
Emergent Patterns in Complex Systems | 55 |
41 Spatial Patterns | 56 |
42 Stability of Complex Interacting Networks | 65 |
43 The Adaptive Cycle Theory | 75 |
44 Synthesis | 79 |
Implications of Fluctuations Heterogeneity and Diversity | 81 |
51 Permanent Change | 82 |
52 Spatial Heterogeneity and Modularity | 85 |
53 Diversity of Players | 90 |
54 Synthesis | 95 |
Conclusion From Theoretical Concepts to Reality | 96 |
62 Basins of Attraction | 98 |
63 Resilience | 101 |
64 Adaptive Capacity | 103 |
65 Critical Transitions | 104 |
Lakes | 109 |
71 Transparency of Shallow Lakes | 110 |
72 Dynamics | 125 |
73 Other Alternative Stable States | 131 |
74 Synthesis | 138 |
Climate | 139 |
81 Deep Time Climate Shifts | 141 |
82 Glaciation Cycles | 149 |
83 Abrupt Climate Change on Shorter Timescales | 157 |
84 Synthesis | 164 |
Evolution | 166 |
92 Early Animal Evolution and the Cambrian Explosion | 168 |
93 The EndPermian Extinction | 172 |
94 The Angiosperm Radiation | 174 |
95 From Dinosaurs to Mammals | 176 |
96 Global Warming and the Birth of Primates Deer and Horses | 177 |
97 In Search of the Big Picture | 178 |
98 Synthesis | 184 |
Oceans0 | 186 |
101 Open Ocean Regime Shifts | 187 |
102 Coastal Ecosystems | 201 |
Humans | 240 |
121 Shifting Cells | 242 |
122 Shifting Minds | 243 |
123 Behavioral LockIn | 244 |
124 Inertia and Shifts in Group Attitudes | 246 |
125 Societies in Crisis | 250 |
126 Synthesis | 257 |
Conclusion Critical Transitions in a Complex World | 259 |
How to Know if Alternative Basins of Attraction Exist | 265 |
142 Experimental Evidence | 270 |
143 Mechanistic Insight | 273 |
144 Synthesis | 280 |
How to Know if a Threshold Is Near | 282 |
Signs of Upcoming Transitions | 283 |
152 Precursors of Transitions in Real Systems | 290 |
153 Reliablility of the Signals | 293 |
154 Synthesis | 294 |
The Winding Road from Science to Policy | 296 |
161 Exploiting Nature in the Smartest Way | 297 |
163 Synthesis | 309 |
New Approaches to Managing Change | 311 |
171 Promoting Good Transitions | 312 |
172 Preventing Bad Transitions | 320 |
173 Synthesis | 324 |
Prospects | 326 |
182 Toward a Practical Science of Critical Transitions | 327 |
Appendix | 329 |
A2 Allee Effect | 332 |
A4 Competition between Two Species | 334 |
A5 Multispecies Competition | 338 |
A6 Predator Prey Cycles | 339 |
A7 The Hopf Bifurcation | 341 |
A9 Basin Boundary Collision | 344 |
A11 SelfOrganized Patterns | 345 |
A12 Alternative Stable States in Shallow Lakes | 347 |
A13 Floating Plants | 348 |
A14 Contingency in Behavior | 350 |
Glossary | 353 |
Notes | 359 |
| 379 | |
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Common terms and phrases
abundant algae Allee effect alternative attractors alternative basin alternative stable Aquat attraction basin basin of attraction become behavior bifurcation biomass C. S. Holling Cambrian explosion catastrophic cause cells climatic change collapse complex systems critical threshold critical transitions curve cycle density dominance Earth system Ecology ecosystems effect environmental equation equilibrium eutrophication example extinction figure fish fluctuations function glaciation global growth happen hysteresis implies increase instance interaction mechanisms microcredit models Nature nutrient levels nutrient loading occur ocean oscillations panel parameter patterns perturbation phytoplankton plankton population population density positive feedback predators predict problem radiation reefs regime shifts region resilience response result runaway S. R. Carpenter Scheffer Science sediment self-organized criticality shallow lakes situation slow snowball Earth societies spatial species Sphagnum stability landscapes submerged plants suggests temperature theory time-series tion Trends Ecol triggered turbid unstable urchins vegetation warming Younger Dryas zooplankton