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Social modemization and electoral change
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analysis campaign volatility candidates chapter Christoph Blocher citizens class cleavage cognitive mobilization concemed consider contrast Dalton defmition degree of political difﬁcult electoral campaigns electoral dealigmnent electoral volatility estimated evaluations evolution experts factors ﬁgure ﬁrst Furthermore Germany groups of voters heuristics hypothesis ideological important increase Index of Predisposition inﬂuence interblock volatility interelection volatility intrablock issue positions left-right position level of political likelihood ratio tests logistic regression measured one’s online appendix panel waves partisan party identiﬁcation party preferences pattem percent political expertise political novices political schemas political sophistication predicted probabilities predisposition strength present proportion regression relationship religious cleavage respondents Ruth Dreifuss Ruth Metzler signiﬁcant social classes social groups social-structural predispositions speciﬁc split-ticket voting stability of voters strength of predispositions strongly structure Swiss Swiss election Switzerland sympathy tion traditional variables voting behavior voting choice voting decision process voting intentions weak predispositions weakening