Long-Range Futures Research: An Application of Complexity Science

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4-Scene Development Corpora, Mar 24, 2009 - Science - 593 pages
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Succinct and user-friendly, Long-Range Futures Research: An Application of Complexity Science by Robert H. Samet explains how complexity science provides an evolutionary model for the civil system and a new world view. Written for the systems science, and environmental, social and management science schools of futures studies, this book is fully annotated and meticulously researched and penned. Broken into four parts including thirteen chapters and appendices, this technical guide looks at the future evolutionary trajectory and geopolitical macrostructure in relation to other international models and global reference scenarios. Highly readable, it interprets long-range emergent phenomena, using empirical data from accepted contemporary sources of information such as the United Nations, the World Bank and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development. The next generation of forward-thinking world leaders must expand ways of analysing problems and undertaking futures research.
 

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Contents

PreFACe
APPeNDICeS
FutureS reSeArCh AND SYSteMS SCIeNCe
THE METASYSTEMS AND DEEP FUTURES 39
EMERGENCE 73
Page
CIVIL ECOSTRUCTURES 137
6
461
463
Metropolises with populations over 2 million 468
Future urban population by continental region 476
Future number of cities by continental region and urban size class 478
Past and future number of cities by urban size class 1975 2000 2025 480
Number of prospective world cities of the future 483
Future workforce by division and continental region 487

7
9
263
THE GEOPOLITICAL MACROSTRUCTURE
LONGRANGE GLOBAL SCENARIOS 365
EVOLUTIONARY LANDSCAPES FOR A COMPLEX WORLD 401 CHAPTER 9
A century of futures research and systems science
Verhulst logistic curve SCurve 3 Prognostication of a longterm future state
Geological and archaeological timescales
Civilisations of humankind
Metatimescale for deep futures
RICISIC sectoral classification coding guide
Location index analysis by sector and area 9 Property profiles by urban classification 10 Planning standards for urban establishments 11 Urban area l...
457
458
Future land use by continental region 488
Default values for material resource flows 491
Future Gross World Product by continental region 492
Future investment stock requirements by continental region 494
Future material flows by continental region 497
Future world car fleet and global energy use by continental region 498
Potential number of ecopolitan states 500
Future workforce and number of large establishments by continental region 502
Longrange scenario profiles 504
Glossary of terms 516
Conversion of energy units 545
Bibliography 546
Index 566
Copyright

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About the author (2009)

Robert H. Samet is a civil engineer with forty years experience as a specialist consultant in planning and futures research, development and regional studies, investment appraisal and corporate location strategy. For a decade, he directed a multi-client study to develop the London Megapolis Regional Information System covering some 300 urban centres and 11,000 establishments, to explore the transactional dynamics behind urban investment flows and to explain the changing gradients between locations in investment returns. He was also a consultant of US-based Planning Research Corporation that applied systems science approaches to international development programmes in the Middle East, North Africa and South Asia. His clients included the Ministries of Planning in both Algeria and Saudi Arabia and also the Saudi Royal Commission for Industrial Cities. He and his wife live in a village in Lincolnshire, England, and have four married sons in the USA, Scotland, France and Switzerland.

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