Psychology of Intelligence Analysis

ability accuracy accurate actually ambiguous Amos Tversky Analysis of Competing analytical judgments analytical problem asked assumptions attribute B. F. Skinner Baruch Fischhoff behavior bias Cambodian causal causes Chapter competing hypotheses complex concepts conclusions consider consistent creative Daniel Kahneman decision developed diagnostic discussed effect estimates example expect experience explanations factors foreign handicappers Heuer human ideas identify imagine impact important inferences influence intelligence analysts Intelligence Community intelligence failures intelligence reporting interpret intuitive item of evidence judg Kent Lee Ross likelihood limitations long-term memory lysts MacEachin matrix ment mental model mental processes mind mind-set observer one’s organizational outcome Paul Slovic perceive perception perspective policymakers political possible prior probability probability procedures psychological question relationship relevant retrieved Robert Jervis scenario schemata Sherman Kent situational logic Soviet strategy Studies in Intelligence tend test subjects theory thinking tion tradecraft uncertainty understanding variables Vietnamese