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THE CONCEPT OF POLICY MOOD
DEVELOPING A MEASURE OF MOOD
THE COMPONENTS OF MOOD
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abortion aggregate alternative American politics analysis assumption attitudes average behavior Bill Clinton candidates central tendency Clinton coefficient common concept conservatism conservative contests correlation cycle Democratic Percentage Domestic Policy dummy dummy variables effect Eigenvalue election outcomes electorate Erikson error essay Estimated Mood evidence example expect exponential smoothing Figure fluctuation focus government in Washington incumbent individual issue domain less liberalism index look MacKuen macropartisanship mandate matter means measure metric Military Spending move movement National Election Study parallel particular party pattern percent period policy mood policy preferences policymakers politicians presidential elections principal components analysis problem produce public opinion question random Reagan Recursion regression Republican Republican Revolution response result Ronald Reagan sampling sampling error scale seen simple smoothing social specific standard Stimson survey marginals things timate tion trend Trendex Series U.S. Senate variables variance variation views vote voters welfare