The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal

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Taylor & Francis, 2002 - History - 497 pages
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Before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654, how did we make reliable predictions? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In this book, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors and juries evaluated evidence; scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates.
 

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Contents

II
ix
III
xi
IV
1
V
4
VI
6
VII
8
VIII
9
IX
14
LIV
174
LV
178
LVI
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LVII
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LVIII
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LIX
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LX
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LXI
196

X
18
XI
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XII
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XIII
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XIV
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XV
35
XVI
37
XVII
41
XVIII
52
XIX
58
XX
59
XXI
63
XXII
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XXIII
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XXIV
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XXV
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XXVI
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XXVII
88
XXVIII
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XXIX
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XXX
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XXXI
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XXXII
108
XXXIII
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XXXIV
114
XXXV
115
XXXVI
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XXXVII
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XXXVIII
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XXXIX
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XL
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XLI
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XLII
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XLIII
132
XLIV
134
XLV
139
XLVI
141
XLVII
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XLVIII
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XLIX
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L
159
LI
166
LII
169
LIII
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LXII
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LXIII
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LXIV
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LXV
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LXVI
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LXVII
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LXVIII
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LXIX
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LXX
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LXXI
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LXXII
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LXXIII
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LXXIV
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LXXV
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LXXVI
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LXXVII
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LXXVIII
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LXXIX
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LXXX
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LXXXI
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LXXXII
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LXXXIII
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LXXXIV
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LXXXV
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LXXXVI
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LXXXVIII
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LXXXIX
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XC
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XCI
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XCII
300
XCIII
307
XCIV
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XCV
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XCVI
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XCVII
324
XCVIII
334
XCIX
337
C
342
CI
356
CIV
359
CV
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CVI
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CVII
481
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