Win, Lose, Or Draw: Domestic Politics and the Crucible of WarWhile the factors affecting the initiation of war have been extensively studied, the factors that determine the outcome of war have been neglected. Using quantitative data and historical illustrations from the early 1800s to the late 1980s, Allan Stam investigates the relative effect on war outcomes of both the choices leaders must make during war and the resources they have at their disposal. Strategy choices, along with decisions about troop levels and defense spending, are not made in a vacuum, according to Stam, but are made in the crucible of domestic politics. Because of domestic political constraints, states must frequently choose less than optimal strategies in the international arena. Stam shows how we must go beyond simply counting resources and look at the process or strategy by which they are employed as the key factor determining who will win. Challenging the assumptions of many realist and neorealist thinkers on war and interstate conflict, Stam shows how domestic political factors affect the outcome of war. Using a rational choice analysis, Stam looks at the factors that affect the decisionmakers' preferences for different outcomes of military conflict, as well as how the payoffs of those outcomes are affected by both domestic and structural factors. Structural factors, such as the state's population, define a state's power relative to that of other states and will affect the probability of a policy succeeding. Domestic factors, such as the positions taken by domestic political groups, will affect the preferences of the leaders for particular outcomes and their willingness to bear the costs associated with the payoffs and probabilities of the various outcomes. This book will be of interest to political scientists studying war and conflict in the international system as well as to historians and military strategists interested in understanding the factors that predict the outcome of war. Allan Stam is Assistant Professor of Political Science, Yale University. |
Contents
War Outcomes and the Study of International Relations | 1 |
Hypotheses on the Outcomes of War | 27 |
Indicators of Costs and Benefits | 49 |
Testing the Model | 73 |
Empirical Results | 111 |
The Effects of Decision Makers Choices | 133 |
Other editions - View all
Win, Lose, Or Draw: Domestic Politics and the Crucible of War Allan C. Stam No preview available - 1999 |
Common terms and phrases
A's cost-benefit balance able Actor A's cost-benefit alliance contributions allies argue argument army attack attrition strategy blitzkrieg Bueno de Mesquita capabilities chances of victory change in Actor chapter coded coefficients conflict Cost-Benefit Balance Positive data set decision makers defense democracy democratic domestic politics duration empirical estimate expected outcome figure forces forecast fought Germans increase independent variables inflict costs initiation international system issue area leaders legitimacy likelihood Likelihood Ratio Test Logistic Regression logit lose maneuver strategy Maoz mass publics military strategy mobilization Morgenthau multinomial multinomial logit number of troops observed offensive doctrine opponent ordered probit Organski Outcome Probability political repression population Posen potential predictions probability of victory punishment strategies Quadrant 4 Win ratio realists realpolitik relative result role sides simply Snyder Soviet state's ability strategy choice Sun Tzu surprise terrain theory tion United Vietnam Vietnam War Waltz war outcomes Win Actor World World War II