Scenarios: The Art of Strategic Conversation

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John Wiley & Sons, Mar 10, 2011 - Business & Economics - 384 pages
Scenario planning allows companies to move away from linear thinking and better understand external change. Eight years (and 30,000 copies) after publication Scenarios is still acknowledged as the definitive work in the field. Now, Kees van der Heijden brings his bestseller up to date, following up on his original case studies and adding significant new material. The Second Edition changes focus slightly by providing more in-depth analysis and application of the concept of the 'strategic conversation'. While maintaining the underlying rigour of the first edition, van der Heijden revisits the text to make it far more practical and accessible, and in doing so gives you the tools you need to set out and negotiate a successful future course for your organization in the face of significant uncertainty.
 

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Contents

The Context
List of Illustrations
The Principles of Scenariobased Planning
The perceptional iceberg
Scenario Analysis
Principle of iterative scenario building
Scenarios test the Business Idea
The iterative scenario analysis process
The fiveforces model of competition
Scenario Development
Starting an influence diagram
Example of a driving force analysis
The Mont Fleur scenario structure
Scenario structure based on dominant trends
Example of a scenario matrix
Driving force ranking space

Scenarios and the Strategic Conversation
Scenarios provide a new perspective
The Practice of Scenariobased Planning
The Practitioners
The elicitation cycle
The business in its environment
Articulation of the Business Idea
Start of a Business Idea diagram
First stage Business Idea diagram
Reducing the Business Idea to its essentials
The Business Idea considered against scenarios
Competitive Positioning
The actorstakeholder matrix
Option Planning
Scenariooption matrix
Optionstakeholder matrix
Institutionalising Scenariobased Planning
The Management of Change
Creating action
Planning Process
The five levels of business planning
The Informal Strategic Conversation
Copyright

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About the author (2011)

Kees van der Heijden is an Associate Fellow of Templeton College, University of Oxford, and a Visiting Professor at the Netherlands Business School, Nijenrode University. He is also Emeritus Professor of the University of Strathclyde Graduate School of Business, Glasgow, where he has taught General and Strategic Management since 1990. In addition, he is a co-founder of the Global Business Network. Before joining Strathclyde, he was in charge of scenario planning at Royal Dutch/Shell, as head of the Group’s Business Environment Division. This involved advising top management on strategy, as well as development of the process of scenario planning in which Shell has taken a worldwide leading role.
He specializes in scenario planning, strategic change and institutional strategic management processes, and has consulted widely in these areas.

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