Improving Information for Social Policy Decisions -- The Uses of Microsimulation Modeling: Volume I, Review and Recommendations

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This book reviews the uses and abuses of microsimulation models--large, complex models that produce estimates of the effects on program costs and who would gain and who would lose from proposed changes in government policies ranging from health care to welfare to taxes.
Volume 1 is designed to guide future investment in modeling and analysis capability on the part of government agencies that produce policy estimates. It will inform congressional and executive decision makers about the strengths and weaknesses of models and estimates and will interest social scientists in the potential of microsimulation techniques for basic and applied research as well as policy uses.
The book concludes that a "second revolution" is needed to improve the quality of microsimulation and other policy analysis models and the estimates they produce, with a special emphasis on systematic validation of models and communication of validation results to decision makers.

 

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Contents

INTRODUCTION
21
TOWARD A SECOND REVOLUTION
29
Validation
72
Documentation and Communication of the Results of Policy Analysis
84
THE ROLE OF MICROSIMULATION AS A POLICY
97
DATABASES FOR MICROSIMULATION
123
MODEL DESIGN AND DEVELOPMENT
153
COMPUTING TECHNOLOGY AND MICROSIMULA TION
182
Tax Policies
219
DOCUMENTATION AND ARCHIVING
265
THE MICROSIMULATION MODELING COMMU NITY
273
Policy Analysis Agencies and Decision Makers Staffs
280
MICROSIMULATION MODELS DATABASES AND MODELING TERMS
290
Databases
298
GLOSSARY OF ACRONYMS
311
BIOGRAPHICAL SKETCHES OF PANEL MEM
331

Future Directions for Computing in Microsimulation
191
Retirement Income Policies
212

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