small." From almost every part of Ireland the news comes that tenants are more willing thar: they were to pay their rents; and the meetings of the various branches of the National League, in districts where these have not been forbidden, are attended by far fewer persons than heretofore. If the game of disorder is not completely" up," those who still go on playing it have manifestly lost heart, and they expend their energies mainly in abuse of individuals, and sneering of the Chief Secretary. But in abusing Mr. Balfour, they discover, to their vexation, they are only gnawing a file. As he told them, in the admirable and courageous speech he delivered in the Free Trade Hall, at Manchester, on the 14th of the month, he should be exceedingly sorry to interfere with "free speech of a free people," even when their speech consists of a series of epithets and adjectives not usually found outside the dictionary; but the moment they pass from vituperation to infractions of the law, he will grapple with them to the best of his ability. Some seven weeks have yet to elapse before Parliament meets; and if the Executive in Ireland only perseveres, during that period, in the path it has marked out for itself, it is certain that the speech from the Throne will be able to announce to Parliament a marked improvement in the political and social condition of that country. The Convention of the Irish landlords under the presidency of the Duke of Abercorn, is another encouraging symptom in the situation; for it shows, that not only are they alive alike to their duties and to their danger, but that they are at last prepared to act together on behalf of what remains of their social and financial interests. The Convention came to no absolute decision on the question of Purchase; but the current of opinion, both in Ireland and in England, rather runs against wholesale Compulsory Sale, with a view to the abolition of Dual Ownership. The opinion gains ground that an extension of the operation of Lord Ashbourne's Act, which makes provision for voluntary sale, would be preferable to forced and universal expropriation.

The Christmas holidays necessarily brought us a respite from the platform speech-making which is now a normal feature of parliamentary recess; but up to the advent of that season, all the prominent politicians of the country were engaged in fast and furious controversy before admiring or reprehending crowds. The object of each side is to "tire each other down"; and though neither side has been silenced, no one can have failed to observe that the fire from the Separatist ranks has been greatly overmatched, and overborne by the cannonading from the ranks of the Unionists. Mr. Gladstone can no longer stand the fatigue of addressing large masses of people, and has to confine himself, more or less, to letters to private individuals, "intended for

publication." He is going to the north of Italy for a change, and in order to be out of the way of the temptation to overtax his voice. Mr. Morley has been laid up with a severe cold. Thus, if we except a few courageous platitudes from Lord Granville, and some vivacious but not very original invective from Lord Rosebery, the burden of the fight on the Separatist side has fallen on Sir George Trevelyan, Sir William Harcourt, and Mr. Labouchere. The Prime Minister has said many wise and witty things. But he never said anything wittier, more true, or more pertinent, than when, in his speech at Derby, he described Sir William Harcourt as turning political somersaults because it is his role in life to do so, and Sir George Trevelyan as tumbling about simply because of congenital inability to stand upright. Many years ago, Punch had a cartoon under which was written, "What Brougham must do next"; and the ex-Lord-Chancellor was depicted as standing on his head in the middle of the floor of the House of Lords. What Sir William Harcourt must do next, we confess we are quite unable to surmise. Only one thing is certain. There is no lower depth for him than the one he has already reached. Of the advantages or disadvantages of his own degradation he must be considered the best judge; but it is deeply to be regretted that such a person can be spoken of as a candidate for the leadership of the Separatist Party on the retirement of Mr. Gladstone from the post. Men will stand a good deal from persons who fight their battles and give expression to their animosities. But we cannot think that any political Party, however lowered in its own esteem and that of others, could be brought to accept the leadership of Sir William Harcourt.

The Liberal Unionist Conference which took place in London on the 8th of the month, was the most imposing of all the gatherings yet held by that able body of politicians. The speeches on the occasion that produced the deepest impression were those delivered by the Duke of Argyll and the Earl of Derby. Both were extremely powerful; the one from close reasoning, the other from brilliant exposition and apt illustration. Mr. Gladstone is now well aware that the rent he so gratuitously and perversely made in the Liberal ranks is wider than ever, and cannot be repaired in his lifetime, if indeed at any future time. The speech delivered by the Marquis of Hartington before his constituents at Rosendale enforced the same conclusion. A portion of the Opposition had been counting on driving a wedge into the Unionist ranks by harping on the ill-advised Resolution passed by the Union of Conservative Associations at Oxford. But Lord Hartington and his friends protest that nothing will induce them to act against the Government, so long as the Question of Parliamentary Home Rule for Ireland is

not settled; and Lord Salisbury wisely seized the opportunity offered him at Derby to declare that, in his opinion and that of his colleagues, any duty on corn, or any duties tending to increase the price of food in this country, is not to be thought of. While deeply sympathizing with the depression from which Agriculture is suffering, and deploring the losses of which so many individuals have been the victims, Lord Salisbury pointed out that Protection for the Land could not be restored without a Civil War. Even those Conservatives, and they are a minority, who believe that a return to Protection, either openly or in disguise, is possible, are keenly alive to the imperative necessity of creating neither discord nor confusion in the Unionist ranks. There must be presented ar unbroken front, in face of an energetic, vigilant, and vindictive enemy.

The Year has closed on the European Continent with rumours and menaces of War, more feverish and alarming than any of the previous threats of a similar character that has kept recurring during the last twelvemonth. This time, moreover, the note of anxiety has proceeded from Vienna, the capital of the most cautious and peace-loving State in Europe. Concerning the origin of what, in the jargon of the day, is called the Scare, even the best-informed persons are not agreed. Some attribute it to Prince Bismarck, and explain his motive to have been that he is dissatisfied with the easy-going ways of the Austrian War Office, and wants to frighten the Dual Empire into extending and accelerating its preparations for a struggle that is inevitable sooner or later. This suggestion is somewhat superficial, and will not bear close or analytical scrutiny. In the first place, the manoeuvre would have been too transparent for the Cabinet of Vienna not to have seen through it. Secondly, if the alarm is a false one, Prince Bismarck has put himself in the position of the boy in the fable, who, by crying "Wolf!" when there was no wolf, left himself without aid when the animal did actually make its appearance. Thirdly, the financial resources of Austria are notoriously scanty; and it would be an arrant waste of power to induce that Power to spend money on preparations for a conflict that is not imminent. Finally, the relations of Berlin and Vienna are much too intimate for Prince Bismarck to be obliged to resort to roundabout methods of conveying his thoughts, feelings, and anticipations, to Germany's principal ally. For our part, we entertain no doubt whatever either that Austria has, independently, and of its own initiative, taken genuine alarm at the massing of Russian troops on its frontier, or that the ostensible trepidation was the result of an arrangement deliberately arrived at between Prince Bismarck and Count

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Kalnoky. In either case, the incident is of the utmost significance and gravity. Both those Statesmen must be well aware that the Czar is too proud a Monarch, and Russia too great a Power, to retreat visibly before a threat, or even an admonition addressed to it, by Austria acting singly, or by Austria and Germany acting jointly. This it is which constitutes the seriousness of the situation, for it proves either that Austria is genuinely alarmed, and with good cause, by the massing of Russian troops in Poland, or that Austria and Germany affect to be alarmed in order to goad Russia into taking steps they might construe as menacing and hostile to their interests. As a fact, Russia has been quick to reply to the accusation that she is arming beyond cause or reason, by observing that she will never be deterred from taking what course she deems necessary for her own safety, and in vindication of her own position as a Great Power; and while the controversy is still maintained by the leading journals of Germany, Russia, and Austria-Hungary, as to which of them has made the largest addition to its fighting power, they one and all are engaged in straining every nerve in order to be prepared for the hour of conflict.

Such, divested of tedious details and conflicting figures, with which everybody ought now to be familiar, is the situation; and a highly dangerous one it is. The most ordinary considerations of prudence ought to make Russia think twice before engaging in a struggle in which its military strength would be hopelessly overmatched. But prudence has never been a characteristic of Russian policy, and if there be any ground for the suspicion that her too powerful, but perpetually menaced, neighbours consider the present moment a favourable one for ridding themselves of a standing cause for uneasiness and anxiety, Austro-German prescience and Russian temerity may easily co-operate to bring about, this Spring, the tremendous war for which the world has long been looking.

How little most persons apprehend the real and lasting causes for solicitude, has been evidenced by their readiness to believe that, could Prince Ferdinand be induced to quit Bulgaria, the warclouds would at once be dispersed on the eastern horizon of Europe. His departure would be far more likely to hurry on a struggle than to postpone it; for, were he to depart, the state of Bulgaria would probably become far more unsettled and combustible than it is at present, and Russia would feel more than ever the pressure of the dilemma which compels her either to let Bulgaria escape altogether from her grasp, or to interfere vi et armis in the Principality, and take the consequences. The real danger of war consists, not in the presence of this or that person

in Bulgaria, but in the fact that Russia must forego in the Balkan Peninsula all the advantages supposed to accrue from the costly and sanguinary war of 1877, or must engage in another war more costly and sanguinary still, and far more perilous; and likewise in the circumstance that the wise Rulers of Germany, in their farseeing resolution, may conclude that it is imperative to paralyse the power of Russia before that Power finds a favourable opportunity of joining hands with France for the furtherance of a common ambition and the gratification of a common vindictiveness.

Meanwhile, France has abstained, as much as possible, from mixing in the controversy, and looks on with almost an affectation of unconcern. Something of this ostentatious indifference is the result of deliberate policy; in some degree, it is to be traced to the domestic annoyances from which the French nation is suffering, and likewise to the circumstance that the French Legislature is not sitting. The Senate and Chamber of Deputies, summoned to Versailles to act as a National Assembly, on the Resignation of M. Grévy, quickly despatched its business, by electing M. Carnot as his successor. This decision was due rather to necessity than choice; for the Opportunists were determined M. de Freycinet should not be elevated to the post of President, and the Radicals were equally resolved that M. Jules Ferry should not be Head of the State. A tertium quid was accordingly found in M. Carnot, a highly respected politician of somewhat insignificant antecedents, but a grandson of the celebrated Minister of War when Napoleon's military star first began to shine. After a number of useless applications to other men of more note and authority, M. Carnot commissioned M. Tirard to form a Cabinet, which has neither more nor less chance of a prolonged existence than its short-lived predecessors. In all probability, it will disappear shortly after the re-assembling of the Legislature on the 19th of January. For a moment, men's minds were further agitated by an attempt on the life of M. Ferry. But the would-be assassin turned out to be a lunatic; and as no political capital could be made out of his conduct, he has dropped as much out of sight as, for precisely the same reason, the late President of the Republic, and his speculative son-in-law, M. Wilson. For France, as for other Continental Powers, the New Year will open darkly. If 1888 passes away without witnessing dire events, it will do so in despite of omens that must be visible to the most careless and least apprehensive gaze.

December 28th.