Chance and Temporal AsymmetryAlastair Wilson Chance and Temporal Asymmetry presents a collection of cutting-edge research papers in the metaphysics of science, tackling the perplexing philosophical problems raised by recent progress in the physics and metaphysics of chance and time. How do the probabilities found in fundamental physics and the probabilities of the special sciences relate to one another? Can a constraint on the initial conditions of the universe underwrite the second law of thermodynamics? How does contemporary quantum theory reframe debates over the nature of chance? What grounds do we have for believing in a fundamental direction to time? And how do all these questions connect up? The aim of the volume is both to survey and summarize recent debates about chance and temporal asymmetry and to push them forward. Familiar approaches are subjected to searching new critiques, and bold new proposals are made concerning (inter alia) the semantics of chance-attributions, the justification of the Principal Principle connecting chance and degree of belief, and the source of the temporal asymmetry of human experience. The contributors include world-leading figures in the field, all presenting new work rather than rehashing old ideas, as well as a number of promising junior scholars. A wide-ranging introduction connects the different chapters together, and provides essential background to the debates they take up. Technicality is kept to a minimum and philosophical and conceptual foundations take centre stage. Chance and Temporal Asymmetry sets the agenda for future work on time and chance, which are central to the emerging sub-field of metaphysics of science. It will be indispensable to graduate students and to specialists in metaphysics and philosophy of science. |
Contents
| 1 | |
1 Chance and Context | 19 |
2 Autonomous Chances and the Conflicts Problem | 45 |
Reply to Meacham | 68 |
4 Proving the Principal Principle | 81 |
5 A Chancy Magic Trick | 100 |
Theres No Escaping
Humphreys Paradox When Generalized | 112 |
7 Is the Past a Matter of Chance? | 126 |
8 The Sharpness of the Distinction between the Past and the Future | 159 |
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actual agent Alastair Wilson Albert and Loewer antecedent argue argument assumption axiom system Best System Callender and Cohen causal CF asymmetry chance function chance theories chTK chTK(A claim classical coarse-grained chance coin compatibilist conditional probabilities constraints context contingent COSMic account counterfactual derivation deterministic discussion dynamics entails entropy epistemic evidence base example experience explain fact frequentist fundamental future given Handfield Hoefer Humean incompatibilism initial conditions initial credence function interpretation land heads Lewis Lewisian macrodynamics macroscopic macrostate Meacham Mentaculus metaphysics modal non-fundamental non-trivial Objective Chance objective probabilities one’s ordinary Oxford University Press particles particular Past Hypothesis past outcomes Philosophy of Science physics possible worlds Principal Principle probabilistic probability axioms probability distribution probability measure problem propensity theorist properties proposal propositions Prt0 quantum mechanics quantum theory reason relevant Schaffer sequence simplicity sort special sciences statistical mechanics stochastic Supervenience suppose temporal asymmetry thermodynamic toss Weslake