## Common Probability Distributions

When we output a forecast, we're either explicitly or implicitly outputting a probability distribution. For example, if we forecast the AQI in Berkeley tomorrow to be "around" 30, plus or minus

## Base Rates and Reference Classes

Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 class on Forecasting. Let's start by considering the following question: What is the probability that Joe Biden is President of the United States on Nov.

## Forecasting: Zeroth and First Order

Part of lecture notes for the upcoming Stat157 class on Forecasting. Let's say you are trying to predict how long it will take to finish your homework assignment. You think about all the

## Measuring and Forecasting Risks from AI

As part of my work for Open Philanthropy, I recently wrote a call for grant proposals on measuring and forecasting risks from future AI systems. I personally think this is a promising area

## How should we compare neural network representations?

Cross-posted from the BAIR Blog. To understand neural networks, researchers often use similarity metrics to measure how similar or different two neural networks are to each other. For instance, they are used to