Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and Philosophy
Anthropic Bias explores how to reason when you suspect that your evidence is biased by "observation selection effects"--that is, evidence that has been filtered by the precondition that there be some suitably positioned observer to "have" the evidence. This conundrum--sometimes alluded to as "the anthropic principle," "self-locating belief," or "indexical information"--turns out to be a surprisingly perplexing and intellectually stimulating challenge, one abounding with important implications for many areas in science and philosophy.
There are the philosophical thought experiments and paradoxes: the Doomsday Argument; Sleeping Beauty; the Presumptuous Philosopher; Adam & Eve; the Absent-Minded Driver; the Shooting Room.
And there are the applications in contemporary science: cosmology ("How many universes are there?", "Why does the universe appear fine-tuned for life?"); evolutionary theory ("How improbable was the evolution of intelligent life on our planet?"); the problem of time's arrow ("Can it be given a thermodynamic explanation?"); quantum physics ("How can the many-worlds theory be tested?"); game-theory problems with imperfect recall ("How to model them?"); even traffic analysis ("Why is the 'next lane' faster?").
Anthropic Bias argues that the same principles are at work across all these domains. And it offers a synthesis: a mathematically explicit theory of observation selection effects that attempts to meet scientific needs while steering clear of philosophical paradox.
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Review: Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and PhilosophyUser Review - Hom Sack - Goodreads
This book is one of the suggested readings in preparation for tonight's Philosophy Cafe meeting to discuss the question: "What is the role of anthropocentric reasoning in science and philosophy?" As ... Read full review
Review: Anthropic Bias: Observation Selection Effects in Science and PhilosophyUser Review - Mathieu Roy - Goodreads
This guy's doing philosophy as philosophy should be done! Read full review
A BRIEF HISTORY OF ANTHROPIC REASONING
SYNOPSIS OF THIS BOOK
FineTuning in Cosmology
DOES FINETUNING NEED EXPLAINING?
No INVERSE GAMBLERS FALLACY
ROGER WHITE AND PHIL DOWES ANALYSIS
SURPRISING vs UNSURPRISING IMPROBABLE EVENTS
SLIDING REFERENCE OF SOON AND LATE?
DOESNT YOUR THEORY PRESUPPOSE THAT WHAT HAPPENS IN CAUSALLY DISCONNECTED REGIONS AFFECTS WHAT HAPPENS HE...
THE SELFINDICATION ASSUMPTIONIs THERE SAFETY IN NUMBERS?
ObserverRelative Chances in Anthropic Reasoning?
INDEXICAL FACTSNO CONFLICT WITH PHYSICALISM
THE NOBETTING RESULTS
THE ANGEL PARABLE
Anthropic Principles The Motley Family
FREAK OBSERVERS AND WHY EARLTER FORMULATIONS ARE INADEQUATE
THE SELFSAMPLING ASSUMPTION
Thought Experiments Supporting the SelfSampling Assumption
TWO THOUGHT EXPERIMENTS BY JOHN LESLIE
THE INCUBATOR GEDANKEN
THE REFERENCE CLASS PROBLEM
The SelfSampling Assumption in Science
SSA IN THERMODYNAMICS
SSA IN EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY
SSA IN TRAFFIC ANALYSIS
SSA IN QUANTUM PHYSICS
SUMMARY OF THE CASE FOR SSA
The Doomsday Argument
THE INCORRECTNESS OF GOTTS ARGUMENT
THE PREMISSES OF DA AND THE OLD EVIDENCE PROBLEM
LESLIES VIEWS ON THE REFERENCE CLASS PROBLEM
ALTERNATIVE CONCLUSIONS OF DA
Invalid Objections Against the Doomsday Argument
ISNT A SAMPLE SIZE OF ONE TOO SMALL?
COULDNT A CROMAGNON MAN HAVE USED THE DOOMSDAY ARGUMENT?
ARENT WE NECESSARILY ALIVE NOW?
Paradoxes of the SelfSampling Assumption
THE ADAM EVE EXPERIMENTS
PREDICTIONS AND COUNTERFACTUALS
REASONS AND ABILITIES
SSA AND THE PRINCIPAL PRINCIPLE
THE METANEWCOMB PROBLEM
Observation Selection Theory A Methodology for Anthropic Reasoning
THE OUTLINE OF A SOLUTION
TAKING ACCOUNT OF INDEXICAL INFORMATION OF OBSERVERMOMENTS
HOW THE REFERENCE CLASS MAY BE OBSERVERMOMENT RELATIVE
THE OBSERVATION EQUATION
A QUANTUM GENERALIZATION OF OE
WHY R MUST BE REJECTED
A SUBJECTIVE FACTOR IN THE CHOICE OF REFERENCE CLASS?
Observation Selection Theory Applied
THE FREAKOBSERVER PROBLEM PLACES ONLY LAX DEMANDS ON THE REFERENCE CLASS
MODELING IMPERFECT RECALL
THE CASE OF NO OUTSIDERS
THE CASE WITH OUTSIDERS
SYNTHESIS OF THE 12 AND THE 12 VIEWS
ROBUSTNESS OF REFERENCE CLASS AND SCIENTIFIC SOLIDITY