Global Catastrophic RisksNick Bostrom, Milan M. Cirkovic A global catastrophic risk is one with the potential to wreak death and destruction on a global scale. In human history, wars and plagues have done so on more than one occasion, and misguided ideologies and totalitarian regimes have darkened an entire era or a region. Advances in technology are adding dangers of a new kind. It could happen again. In Global Catastrophic Risks 25 leading experts look at the gravest risks facing humanity in the 21st century, including asteroid impacts, gamma-ray bursts, Earth-based natural catastrophes, nuclear war, terrorism, global warming, biological weapons, totalitarianism, advanced nanotechnology, general artificial intelligence, and social collapse. The book also addresses over-arching issues - policy responses and methods for predicting and managing catastrophes. This is invaluable reading for anyone interested in the big issues of our time; for students focusing on science, society, technology, and public policy; and for academics, policy-makers, and professionals working in these acutely important fields. |
Contents
Longterm astrophysical processes | |
Evolution theory and the future of humanity | |
which we depend | |
Millennial tendencies in responses to apocalyptic threats | |
past present and future | |
mortality or both | |
infections | |
and ancient threats | |
Artificial Intelligence as a positive and negative factor | |
technologies | |
Big troubles imagined and real | |
Catastrophe social collapse and human extinction | |
apocalypticism | |
Cognitive biases potentially affecting judgement of global | |
Observation selection effects and global catastrophic risks | |
intelligence | |
Systemsbased risk analysis | |
scenario structuring | |
multiscale systems | |
Catastrophes and insurance | |
Public policy towards catastrophe | |
Supervolcanism and other geophysical processes | |
Hazards from comets and asteroids | |
Influence of Supernovae gammaray bursts solar flares | |
Climate change and global risk | |
The continuing threat of nuclear | |
a preventable peril | |
progressed? | |
nonnuclear means? | |
Suggestions for further reading | |
Biotechnology and biosecurity | |
micro and molecular biology | |
synthesis technologies | |
managing outbreaks | |
Nanotechnology as global catastrophic risk | |
The totalitarian threat | |
Authors biographies | |
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Common terms and phrases
accelerating alleles anthropic anthropic bias apocalyptic approximately Artificial Intelligence assessment asteroid astrobiology Astrophys atmosphere behaviour biological black holes Bostrom Cambridge cause Chapter Ćirković climate change comets consequences cosmic rays cost damage deaths developed disaster disease distribution Earth emerging emissions energy environmental eruptions estimate evolution evolutionary example existential risks expected explosion extraterrestrial factors Friendly AI future Galactic galaxy genes genetic global catastrophic risks global warming GRBs Haimes hazard heuristics and biases human impact increase infection Kahneman likelihood loss mass extinctions millennial million molecular nanotechnology nanotechnology natural nuclear terrorism nuclear weapons occur orbit pandemic particles physical planet population possible potential predict probability problem proton proton decay radiation Rampino result scenarios Science simulation social solar species stars stellar strangelet super-eruption superintelligence supernovae temperature terrorist threat Toba uncertainty University Press virus volcanic white dwarfs York