THE NATIONAL REVIEW No. 319. SEPTEMBER 1909 EPISODES OF THE MONTH ALTHOUGH there is a momentary lull in the international situation, it can hardly be described as inspiring any sense of security or stability, and we shall be fortunate if this autumn The Lull is less agitated than last autumn. It would be difficult to indicate any particular question or any particular spot as a danger-point, but there is a general feeling of malaise which keeps statesmen and diplomatists on the qui vive. Prudent people should be prepared for all eventualities. The great majority of Sovereigns and Governments are undoubtedly animated by a sincere attachment to peace, and their professions on this score may be accepted unhesitatingly, even by the most sceptical and suspicious, not on account of their superior virtue, but simply because they have sufficient intelligence to appreciate that their countries stand to lose infinitely more than they could reasonably hope to gain by risking a conflict. It requires little knowledge of Russia, France, or Great Britain to realise the depth of their devotion to peace, and a similar observation applies to the Dual Monarchy and Italy; thus a strong bond unites these five Powers, which is not materially weakened by passing breezes. There is, however, an obvious difference between the members of the Triple Entente and those of the Triple Alliance, in that the former are absolutely on an equality with one another, while it is no disparagement to Austria-Hungary and to Italy to point out that their policy is liable VOI. LIV 1 to be affected by the endless alarums and excursions of their predominant partner. Though it is undeniable, as the German Emperor never wearies of proclaiming, that Germany has kept clear of war for nearly forty years, following the decade of "blood and iron," it is equally undeniable that she has been an active promoter of strife between other nations, or that her diplomacy has been the causa causans of not a few wars. She is consequently regarded as the Grand International Agent Provocateur, and it is the Prussian obsession that the glory and prestige of the German Empire demand the development of differences among her neighbours that prevents the Chanceries of Europe from sleeping quietly in their beds. With the removal of the occasionally restraining influence of Prince Bülow, which makes Wilhelm II. more than ever master in his own house, the civilised world must be on the look-out for further coups de théâtre. It is, moreover, rapidly becoming imperative for the German Emperor to justify the prodigious cost of his Welt-Politik and the enormous expansion of German armaments to a patriotic but practical people. International GREAT BRITAIN has every reason to understand a policy from which she has suffered severely in the past, as for many years it maintained her in a position of perilous isolation, but it is not only we who have to be on our guard against devilish attempts to poison the wells of foreign public opinion. However often the persistent Prussian diplomat may be foiled, he invariably returns to the charge, frequently from an unexpected quarter. So other Powers must equally remain toujours en vedette against insidious machinations. The Entente Cordiale with France has weathered so many storms and resisted so many intrigues calculated to destroy it that we may regard it with some equanimity, whatever Government may be in power in Paris or in London. The new French Premier (M. Briand) is likely to pursue the same policy as his predecessor, M. Clemenceau. M. Pichon (French Foreign Minister) has survived the Ministerial reconstruction, and remains at the Quai d'Orsay. Germany appears, at any rate for the moment, to have abandoned her open frontal attack. But she still hopes to achieve the end deemed essential to her interests by flanking operations against the Anglo-French entente. German finance has acquired a menacing position in many parts of the world-in spite of the reluctance of the German investor to export his capital abroad-mainly owing to the intimate co-operation between the German Government and German financiers, and the facility with which foreign finance can usually be induced to supply the sinews of war. British policy has hitherto been lamentably weak on its financial side, as there has been little or no co-operation between the British Government and British financiers, who have been left to shift for themselves, with the inevitable result that they have either gone to the wall, as in the Near East, or have been drawn into the German orbit, as in the Far East. The Wilhelmstrasse is skilfully turning this lacuna in our policy to German advantage, and is engaged in operating a financial rapprochement with France, which is expected to bear valuable political fruit. We must also remember that German diplomacy is even more assiduous in Paris than in London in cultivating Press relations, and we may safely assume that certain articles appearing in certain French journals are made abroad. They are sermons on one text-viz., that France has put her money on the wrong horse in entering the Entente Cordiale and in backing a Power incapable of affording substantial military aid, while it is openly hinted that Great Britain will be unable to stand the racket of German naval competition, and that within a few years the Mailed Fist will rule the sea as well as the land. Sir Edward Grey is an admirable Foreign Minister, but it is unfortunate that his colleagues should be actively assisting this anti-British campaign. IN Russia different tactics are pursued by the astute Wilhelmstrasse, the prejudices and fears of the Reactionaries being Austro- skilfully appealed to against any rapprochement with "Radical" England, as calculated to promote "revolution" in Russia. Such artifices are so transparent that they should not deceive a child in arms, but Englishmen have no right to be surprised at any German success with Russian obscurantists, seeing that several of our enlightened Radicals have been inveigled into Russophobia on the precisely opposite ground that Radical England would be corrupted by contact with reactionary Russia. Germany's success in persuading Russian Tories and British Radicals to dance to her piping is no mean achievement, though it forcibly recalls certain unflattering comments of Carlyle on the general level of human intelligence. Similar manœuvres are practised in other countries, and during the past year hopes ran high in Potsdam of driving a permanent wedge between Great Britain and the Dual Monarchy as also of promoting coolness between ourselves and our Italian friends. There is every reason to believe that the Emperor Francis Joseph was nettled at what he regarded as our unwarrantable attitude towards the annexation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, just as we were nettled by its modus operandi. The Austrian Press was instigated from Berlin into a veritable campaign of Anglophobia. Happily, we may regard the recent exchange of compliments between King Edward and the Emperor Francis Joseph, who has always been held in the highest honour in this country, and the cordial articles in the Times and the semi-official Fremdenblätt, as evidence of returning friendliness between Vienna and London. Count d'Aerenthal, the AustroHungarian Foreign Minister, has never been regarded as an Anglophobe, though he resented our action last winter. He is altogether too independent, too sensible, and too strong to allow Austro-British relations to be compromised by foreign marplots. The American Victim WE British have our failings, but intrigue is not one of them, nor is it an art in which we are fitted to shine. It is nevertheless the business of our diplomacy to keep a watchful eye on all hostile manoeuvres, and the British Press could play a valuable part in letting in daylight upon Bismarckian tactics. Efforts are now being made, under the auspices of the ablest of German diplomatists, Baron Marschal von Bieberstein (German Ambassador in Constantinople), who finds his position substantially strengthened by the downfall of his enemy, Prince Bülow, to prejudice England in the eyes of the Young Turks, upon whom Germany counts on exercising sufficient military influence to counteract the discredit which she naturally acquired among all Turkish patriots by her blind and not incorruptible devotion to the ancien régime. In the Middle East she has sustained considerable disappointment owing to the unfaltering loyalty of the Russian and British Governments in observing, in the spirit as well as in the letter, the terms of the much-criticised and now generally |