On Thermonuclear WarOn Thermonuclear War was controversial when originally published and remains so today. It is iconoclastic, crosses disciplinary boundaries, and finally it is calm and compellingly reasonable. The book was widely read on both sides of the Iron Curtain and the result was serious revision in both Western and Soviet strategy and doctrine. As a result, both sides were better able to avoid disaster during the Cold War. The strategic concepts still apply: defense, local animosities, and the usual balance-of-power issues are still very much with us. Kahn's stated purpose in writing this book was simply: "avoiding disaster and buying time, without specifying the use of this time." By the late 1950s, with both sides H-bomb-armed, reason and time were in short supply. Kahn, a military analyst at Rand since 1948, understood that a defense based only on thermonuclear arnaments was inconceivable, morally questionable, and not credible.The book was the first to make sense of nuclear weapons. Originally created from a series of lectures, it provides insight into how policymakers consider such issues. One may agree with Kahn or disagree with him on specific issues, but he clearly defined the terrain of the argument. He also looks at other weapons of mass destruction such as biological and chemical, and the history of their use. The Cold War is over, but the nuclear genie is out of the bottle, and the lessons and principles developed in On Thermonuclear War apply as much to today's China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea as they did to the Soviets. |
Contents
Will the Survivors Envy the Dead? | |
1 | |
CHAPTER II | |
Genetic Assumptions | |
Radioactive Environment 100 Years Later | |
Military Deterrents | |
Bargaining Ability | |
Implications for Study and Analysis | |
Other Important Concepts | |
LECTURE III | |
The Role of Analysis | |
4 | |
On the Analytic Approach to Defense Problems | |
The Strontium90 Problem | |
Carbon14 Problem | |
The Wealth of the United States | |
Estimated Production Capacity Surviving Destruction of 53 | |
Recuperation with InvestmentOriented Policy | |
Neither Oblivion Nor Surrender | |
Feasible Air Defense Contributions to Nonmilitary Defense | |
Morbidity of Acute Total Rody Radiation 23 Fraction of Country Covered by Various Doses in One Early Attack | |
Fraction of Country Covered by Various Doses in One Late Attack | |
Early Attack against SAC and First 50 Urban Areas Late Attack against SAC and 157 Urban Areas | |
LECTURE II | |
Conflicting Objectives | |
Group Choices 27 Contingency Planning | |
Peacetime Objectives of a Strategic Force | |
Desirable Characteristics of a Deterrent | |
Wartime Objectives | |
Wartime Objectives of Defender | |
Flexible War Plans for Defender | |
Stresses and Strains | |
Eight Basic Situations | |
Could the Missile Gap Have Been Dangerous? | |
Four Typical Caveats | |
U S Must Convince S U That | |
The Arms Controllers View of | |
Areas for Arms Control | |
Some Problems of Arms Control | |
Additional Remarks on the Military Problems | |
Reactions to Warning | |
Problems of Mobile Systems | |
Effectiveness of Aimed and Area Attacks | |
To Protect All Deterrent Forces | |
To Protect the United States | |
LongWar Capabilities | |
Nonmilitary Deterrents | |
The German Air Defense Analysis | |
Why Don tWe Care? 55 Government Committee | |
The Problem of Security | |
The Real Past | |
Some World War I Innovations 58 Measure and Countermeasure | |
Attrition of Vl by Active Defense | |
Timing and Coordination Problems of Japanese Attack on Pearl Harbor | |
The Hypothetical Past | |
Technology 1951 | |
Technology 1956 | |
CHAPTER X | |
Technology 1961 | |
Probability of Survival versus Yield of Missile Warhead | |
Technology 1965 | |
Technology 1969 | |
A Comparison of the Growth of China and the Early Soviet | |
Thirteen Years of Progress | |
A Comparison of the Estimated Growth of the Soviet | |
A Possible 1975 Military Posture for U S or S | |
An Adequate Civil Defense Program | |
8 | |
CHAPTER XI | |
Historical Prototypes | |
The Conflicting Objectives | |
PART II | |
Introduction | |
Comparison of Insurance Rates on Residential Houses of Selected Towns in California | |
Premiums of Life and Fire Insurance 1955 | |
Comparison of Manual Rates of Workmens Compensation 4 Distribution of Liability by Classes | |
Geographical Distribution of Policies | |
The Special Importance of Installations | |