with as little friction as possible. Lastly there is a Government or National Party, whose stronghold is among professional and business men except in Cork and one or two other towns. This party is likely to break up when the task of returning law and order has been completed, and the Government is running along normal lines, because it is essentially a coalition of men of different temperaments and economic and political theories, who for the present are willing to subordinate their personal opinions on other subjects to the supreme task of making the Free State a going concern.

The position of the Roman Catholic Church in Ireland is not a political issue. The people are as regular as ever in their religious devotion. Republicans and Free-Staters attend Mass. There is little 'free thought' even in Labor ranks. Yet the younger generation has lost to a large extent the traditional respect for the clergy that characterized their fathers. They pay little heed to clerical advice in secular matters. Most Catholic laymen believe the power of the Church has been permanently weakened. But the outsider whose vision is untroubled by the dust of the recent conflict will doubt this. The Protestant minority has accepted the change of the Government, and its members are now staunch supporters of the Free State. Numerically they are so weak that they excite no jealousy among their Catholic neighbors, who are inclined to be friendly toward them. The only complaint a Protestant farmer in South Ireland had to make to a recent visitor from England was that the Catholics have christened daylight-saving time which, like all farmers, he hated bitterly - 'Protestant time,' in contradistinction to 'Catholic time' or 'God's time.'

PERENNIAL WAR-PROPHECIES

CLARE SHERIDAN, whose sympathy for Russia dates from her visit to Moscow on an artist's adventure over two years ago, writes to the London Labor organ, the Daily Herald, from Königsberg, that the Poles, with the support of France and the secret sympathy of Great Britain, are preparing to attack Russia. They hope for better success than in 1920, because Lenin is eliminated, Germany is paralyzed by the Ruhr, and France is prepared to give stronger support than ever to such an enterprise. Danzig must be eliminated first, because German sympathizers with Russia prevented French munitions from reaching Poland during the 1920 campaign by calling a strike of the wharf laborers in that city. Mussolini - who wishes to finish completely the prostrate Bolshevist movement in Italy by destroying Bolshevism in Russia and Lord Curzon are, according to Socialist alarmists, chief conspirators in this enterprise.

A recent resolution of the Polish Chamber, called upon the Government to take stern measures with Danzig, in fact, to quote the words of a translation given in the English press, 'to impose with all firmness on the territory of the free city of Danzig customs-legislation and an administration in the widest sense of the words subordinate to the legislation and authority of the Polish Republic, so as to obviate the existing abuses and illegalities in the free city of Danzig and its executive organs, which are causing incalculable losses to the whole economic life of Poland.'

The aggressive attitude of the Poles, just at the time of the visit of General Foch to Poland and Czechoslovakia, is interpreted as part of this scheme.

SINCE the occupation of the Ruhr public opinion in Europe has been divided into two camps, and little by little we are returning to the mentality that swayed these two camps during the war. Nowhere is this unhappy condition more deplorable than in Switzerland, a land situated between the two antagonists. Let me add that the Swiss, whose money retains its normal value and whose industries are highly developed, are in a position to understand especially well the ultimate causes preventing the solution of the Reparations question.

On the other hand, I realize what a delicate matter it is for a Swiss citizen to express himself on this complex subject. Therefore I shall confine myself to relating merely what I have seen in the course of my travels during the last few years. I am intimately familiar with financial and commercial conditions in my own country. I believe that my facts come from the most reliable sources. I may add that my conclusions are entirely personal and independent. They must not be taken to represent the public opinion of Switzerland itself.

To understand what is occurring in Germany now we must review briefly her recent past. Germany as she represented herself at the end of the war, and Germany as she actually was, were two quite different things. Where there appeared to be a revolution and a complete overturn of the political government, there was in truth merely a coup d'état - followed, it is true, by

popular disturbances, though poorly organized and led.

What occurred was merely the logical conclusion of the changes that had been going on in Germany since 1917. During the war the old military governing class was rapidly thinned out. Those who fell on the field of battle had to be replaced. The new recruits that thus filtered into the officers' corps came mostly from prominent families in industrial and commercial life. As early as 1915 men of this class had begun to penetrate into spheres hitherto inaccessible to their ambition. The nation sadly needed their organizing talent. They were used to keep the proletariat in check. Their vigorous propaganda had a formidable effect in their own country; but the measures these self-made men took to get their results did not make the impression desired abroad.

In fact, Germany's new politicians utterly lacked tact and intuition. They had no past experience and no true culture. Their patriotism was for the most part pocketbook loyalty. Arrogant by instinct and brutal by temperament, they gradually seized control of the highest posts in the hierarchy of the Empire. To them is due in a large degree the blundering futility of German policies during the war. Mannesmann became an attaché of the Foreign Office, and conceived the extraordinary plan of inducing Switzerland to join Germany by promising her Savoy and a Mediterranean port. What utter simplicity, what ignorance of history,

what lack of the most elementary conception of Swiss national psychology this wild project shows! And yet that man was far more intelligent than most of his colleagues.

Born in their factories and promoted for the most part from subaltern position, such men unavoidably had a distorted idea of life and politics. Having seized the helm of a great State, they imagined that all that was necessary to guide its destinies was to follow the precedents they had learned in their little workshops. Such was the idea, for instance, of the man who was in full charge of German propaganda throughout the war. He owned a large industrial establishment and was imbued with the idea that all Germany needed was 'a well-thought-out and boldly carried-out advertising programme such as our great commercial houses use.' If you want to get rid of damaged goods, and can do so by advertising them widely enough, why not adopt the same plan to make credit for a damaged cause? It is this mentality that has so far prevented Germany's regeneration.

There is not a word of exaggeration in what I say. Communism is practically nonexistent in Germany. The Socialists, preoccupied mainly with washing their own dirty linen, are held in check by the Conservatives. More than that, Socialists of every school back up the great industrialists more or less, some because they fear the ultraRight, some as a matter of tactics, and many as a result of a bargain.

Therefore the great leaders of industry and commerce are above parties, properly speaking. They play in turn the Left against the Right, and the Right against the Left, and are the real masters of Germany. They have bought great metropolitan papers and little local papers. They have done this openly and brutally, without disguise, in many cases forming great corpora

tions to run the daily press. It is in this way Stinnes controls, if I am not mistaken, some one hundred and fifty-six newspapers and magazines. The people are worked upon day and night, and public opinion is directed in whatever channel the man at the top designates. Two weeks ago, when I last returned from Germany, I was appalled by the terrible effects of this journalistic prostitution of opinion - effects the more tragic because the economic condition of the people is steadily growing worse.

But this propaganda spreads abroad, crosses frontiers, is organized, so to speak, on a war basis; and it is all the more effective because it is independent of the Government. It has all the efficiency of a private business.

It is an established fact that ever since the Armistice high finance in Germany has designedly exerted itself to destroy the currency. All the world knows that Europe has been flooded with marks. German propaganda encouraged wild speculation in them in both Europe and America. Vast sums of money have thus been transferred to German hands in return for paper bills that have rapidly grown worthless. So vast has been the scale of these operations that it is impossible to measure them with precision; but they prove that Germany's credit abroad was solid even after she lost the war.

Let me say here that when the Armistice was signed Germany's monetary system was not undermined as it was a short time later. Her unsecured circulation was remarkably small. Conditions were favorable for issuing a great Reparations loan, but no one thought of doing so. Instead, the Germans set out to borrow money in large quantities from every money market in the world, particularly London, Switzerland, the Netherlands, Spain, and America - especially South America.

These facts are not affected by the statement recently made by the Swiss Government to the effect that German credits in our country are now actually less than they were before the war. In any case, they are very large and are constantly growing.

Germany's foreign credits, particularly in Switzerland, are derived from several sources. The public, which is ill-informed in such matters ordinarily, is aware only of the direct sale of marks Unthat is, of bank notes. doubtedly operations of that kind were important, especially immediately after the Armistice that is to say, at the time when the German export-trade had not yet revived and was not methodically organized as it is to-day. German experts have estimated the quantity of German bank notes circulating abroad at a minimum of thirty billion marks. Bearing in mind that these remained at a relatively high value for a long period, and that the large sales abroad occurred principally prior to the end of 1921, we have every reason to suppose that the price received for these marks was at least equivalent to five billion gold francs. That is equal to fifteen billion French francs at the present rate of exchange. Beyond question the greater portion of that sum has been pocketed by Germans. We must add to this German credits resulting from the sale of jewelry and art objects abroad. The dethronement of the royal and princely houses of Germany, and the confiscation of much of the property of the nobility, caused a great flood of articles of value to flow out of the country. It is impossible even to guess the sum that was realized for them, but that sum must be placed to the credit of the sellers.

Germany has acquired foreign credits from a third source the sale of her securities in foreign exchanges. Such

sales have been very heavy indeed. Prior to the war the German people owned foreign securities worth at least twenty-five billion gold marks. The owners were happier than those of France, because they lost comparatively nothing by the Russian debacle. The Germans never had much faith in Russian bonds. After the Treaty of Versailles, of course, the securities issued in the Allied countries that were owned by Germans were seized so far as possible to pay Allied claims against the German Government. However, the measures taken to accomplish this were so clumsy and so carelessly applied that they failed largely to attain their purpose. German financiers smuggled such securities across the frontier and into the hands of ostensibly innocent purchasers. Switzerland and Holland were the great markets for their disposal.

The agents who handled this business in Switzerland were mostly lawyers. They undertook to get the securities out of Germany. Shady emissaries poured into the country from every direction with such paper to sell. Soon there were special exchanges established for securities not guaranteed to be owned by neutrals - that is to say, not having documentary proof that they had had a neutral owner for several years. Securities without such proof naturally sold at a discount. For example, I know of cases where bonds of the same issue ranged in price from four hundred and forty-five to seven hundred and fifty Swiss francs, according to whether they had a verified neutral title or not. A single large German bank has sold such securities in Zurich alone in lots of ten million dollars, operating through a little local banker. For instance, important German holdings in the Liebig Trust of London were disposed of through Switzerland. Victoria Falls, Lima

Light, Tientsin-Pukhow, Chinese 1896 Loan, Chinese Reorganization Loan, Japanese 41% and 5% bonds, Steaua Romana, and numerous other bonds and debentures of all kinds were disposed of via Switzerland. The dollars and pounds sterling paid for them to the German owners were transmitted forthwith to London or to Holland. The purchasers were left with the delicate task of perfecting the title on these securities, and it is hard to believe that they could have succeeded in doing so without help from people directly connected with the companies originally issuing the securities.

French 3% and 31% bonds and bank shares were likewise fraudulently spirited out of Germany; but operations in them were rather limited because of the difficulty of securing the verification of title mentioned. However, a large quantity of Rumanian securities passed from Berlin to Paris via the hands of agents in the occupied territories!

At Berlin an international group of very bad reputation specialized in these Rumanian shares. Its members succeeded in selling such shares to the value of several hundred million francs in Switzerland, Italy, Belgium, and France. The forging of stamps and of fraudulent declarations reached such proportions that the Rumanian Government sent a special mission in 1922 to Switzerland and Belgium to investigate the abuse. Although the chairman was M. Baicoyano, manager of the Rumanian National Bank, the mission accomplished little. The reason is not far to seek, for a full disclosure would have started a scandal immeasurably worse than the Panama scandal, and would have ruined forever too many high reputations.

Of late such operations have declined, because Germany has sold most of her securities. However, important banks in the Netherlands are still en

gaged in this business for the convenience of their patrons.

No one will ever know the exact sum derived from these sales, but unquestionably the amount is very large, and we are justified in asking how the German Government explains its inability to pay certain installments upon its obligations when a single German bank is able to throw on the market in one day securities worth more than twelve million dollars.

Moreover, there is still another source upon which the Germans are drawing to strengthen their financial position in the world. It is the most abundant source of all, because it is inexhaustible. I mean German exports. The whole world knows that Germany's balance of trade is against her. Were we to depend upon her official statistics, we might infer that hopeless ruin stared her in the face. In any case, the steady decline of the mark proves that the supply of this currency exceeds the demand. The depreciation of Germany's money is due to the deficit of exports compared with imports. But if we were to balance bills receivable against bills payable, should we get the same result? That is the thing we want to know. As soon as we delve into this subject we begin to have serious doubts, and soon discover that German statistics should inspire no confidence whatever in an intelligent man.

In the case of imports, duties are based on price at the time of entry. These duties, rated in paper marks, are generally far below the original cost; for the importer bought the goods a considerable period previously, at a nominally lower price, because the constantly depreciating mark was worth more at the time of the purchase.

Turning to exports, the reverse is true, because the prices obtained abroad are not taken into account. The department in charge of export