The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before PascalHow did we make reliable predictions before Pascal and Fermat's discovery of the mathematics of probability in 1654? What methods in law, science, commerce, philosophy, and logic helped us to get at the truth in cases where certainty was not attainable? In The Science of Conjecture, James Franklin examines how judges, witch inquisitors, and juries evaluated evidence; how scientists weighed reasons for and against scientific theories; and how merchants counted shipwrecks to determine insurance rates. The Science of Conjecture provides a history of rational methods of dealing with uncertainty and explores the coming to consciousness of the human understanding of risk. |
Contents
Suspicion Halfproof and Inquisition | |
Renaissance | |
The Doubting Conscience and Moral Certainty | |
Rhetoric Logic Theory | |
Hard Science | |
Soft Science and History | |
Action and Induction | |
Laws of God Laws of Nature | |
Insurance Annuities and Bets | |
Dice | |
Conclusion | |
The Survival of Unquantified Probability | |
Review of Work on Probability before 1660 | |
Other editions - View all
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal James Franklin Limited preview - 2015 |
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability before Pascal James Franklin Limited preview - 2001 |
The Science of Conjecture: Evidence and Probability Before Pascal James Franklin Limited preview - 2002 |
Common terms and phrases
accused ancient annuities appears Aquinas argues argument Aristotle Aristotle's astronomy Baldus believe Cambridge canon law Caramuel Cardano Carneades certainty chapter church Cicero concepts condemned confession conjecture contract Decretals Descartes dice Digest discussion doubt English equal evaluation evidence example fact Fermat Galileo half-proof happen History Huygens Ibid ideas induction inference iuris Jean Bodin Jesuits Journal judge Kepler knowledge later laxism logic London Maimonides mathematical matter medieval method modern moral nature Nicholas of Autrecourt Nicole Oresme observations Oeuvres complètes Opera omnia Oresme Oxford Paris Pascal Philosophy of Science player presumption principle probabilism probabilistic probable opinion problem proof propositions Provincial Letters question quoted reason Renaissance Rhetoric risk Roman law rules Scholastic Sextus Empiricus skepticism Statistical Summa Summa theologiae suspicion Talmud theology theory of probability things thought throws torture trans true truth usury Witchcraft witches witnesses York