The Book of EvidenceWhat is required for something to be evidence for a hypothesis? In this fascinating, elegantly written work, distinguished philosopher of science Peter Achinstein explores this question, rejecting typical philosophical and statistical theories of evidence. He claims these theories are much too weak to give scientists what they want--a good reason to believe--and, in some cases, they furnish concepts that mistakenly make all evidential claims a priori. Achinstein introduces four concepts of evidence, defines three of them by reference to "potential" evidence, and characterizes the latter using a novel epistemic interpretation of probability. The resulting theory is then applied to philosophical and historical issues. Solutions are provided to the "grue," "ravens," "lottery," and "old-evidence" paradoxes, and to a series of questions. These include whether explanations or predictions furnish more evidential weight, whether individual hypotheses or entire theoretical systems can receive evidential support, what counts as a scientific discovery, and what sort of evidence is required for it. The historical questions include whether Jean Perrin had non-circular evidence for the existence of molecules, what type of evidence J. J. Thomson offered for the existence of the electron, and whether, as is usually supposed, he really discovered the electron. Achinstein proposes answers in terms of the concepts of evidence introduced. As the premier book in the fabulous new series Oxford Studies in Philosophy of Science, this volume is essential for philosophers of science and historians of science, as well as for statisticians, scientists with philosophical interests, and anyone curious about scientific reasoning. |
Contents
The Deans Challenge | 3 |
Concepts of Evidence or How the Electron Got Its Charge | 13 |
Two Major Probabilistic Theories of Evidence | 44 |
Copyright | |
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acceptable According answer argument assuming assumption believe h cathode rays cause chapter charged claim coin concept concept of evidence conclusion condition confirmation consider contains correct definition degree of belief dence depends determine discovered discovery effects electrical electron emeralds empirical entails epistemic situation equal ES-evidence evidence that h examined example exist experimental experiments explanation fact false frequency given greater green grue Hertz's hypothesis h idea increase involving John justified known land heads latter least looks lottery means molecules necessary objective observed obtain particles Perrin person possible potential evidence prediction present priori probability proposition question reason to believe relative relativized requires respect satisfied scientists selection selection procedure sense sentence simply statements strong subjective sufficient Suppose symptoms theory things Thomson tickets tion toss true truth veridical evidence yield