The Primary Rules: Parties, Voters, and Presidential Nominations
Reflecting on 2016, it might seem that the national parties have little control over how the presidential nominations unfold and who becomes their presidential candidate. Yet the parties wield more influence than voters in determining who prevails at the National Conventions. Although the reforms of the late 1960s and 1970s gave rank-and-file party members a clear voice in the selection of presidential candidates, the parties retain influence through their ability to set the electoral rules. Despite this capability, party elites do not always fully understand the consequences of the rules and therefore often promote a system that undermines their goals. The Primary Rules illuminates the balance of power that the parties, states, and voters assert on the process. By utilizing an original, comprehensive data set that details the electoral rules each party employed in each state during every nomination from 1976 to 2016, Caitlin E. Jewitt uncovers the effects of the rules on the competitiveness of the nomination, the number of voters who participate, and the nomination outcomes. This reveals how the parties exert influence over their members and limit the impact of voters. The Primary Rules builds on prior analyses and extends work highlighting the role of the parties in the invisible primary stage, as it investigates the parties' influence once the nominations begin. The Primary Rules provides readers with a clearer sense of what the rules are, how they have changed, their consequences, and practical guidance on how to modify the rules of the nomination system to achieve their desired outcomes in future elections.
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From Humphrey to Trump
How Did We Get Here? The Evolution of Presidential Nominations
FrontLoading Competitiveness and Meaningful Participation
The Electoral Rules and the Impact on Voter Turnout
Delegate Allocation Rules FrontRunner Effects and Presidential Nomination Outcomes
Conclusions Consequences and Changes for 2020
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15 percent threshold 1984 Democratic 1988 Republican 2008 Democratic nomination 2012 Republican actual delegate count agenda-seeking candidate become the nominee Bush campaign candidate needed citizens clear front-runner Clinton contests held Counts Under Various Cumulative Number Date of Contest delegate allocation rules delegate leader delegate selection Delegates Under Different Democratic National Committee Democratic Party Different Allocation Procedures egate electoral rules facto nominee front-loading discount score goals Hampshire hold contests Iowa caucuses Jesse Jackson levels of front-loading majority of delegates March Mayer and Busch McCain McGovern–Fraser Commission meaningful participation national convention national parties nomination calendar nomination race nomination season Norrander number of days Number of Delegates Obama office-seeking candidate outcome party elites party’s post-reform presumptive nominee proportional representation reforms Republican nomination Republican Party result Romney social choice theory strong challenger super delegates Super Tuesday turnout rate Various Rules vote voter turnout Winograd Commission withdraw WTA PR PR WTA WTA PR