Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for Epidemics

Front Cover
CRC Press, Jul 21, 1999 - Mathematics - 256 pages
Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or "mad cow disease," first diagnosed in late 1986, is transmitted through feed, indirect horizontal transmission, apparently maternally and possibly horizontally, through cattle-to-cattle contact or a contaminated environment. With no ante-mortem test yet developed, the only information available about BSE is from case surveillance and a limited number of experiments. Only through careful and rigorous modeling and analysis can reliable estimates of past infection and predictions of future cases be made. The modeling developed for BSE utilizes a range of techniques from statistics, ecology, and demography that is of interest both as a case study and for providing tools for other modeling projects. Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for Epidemics presents the general methodology required for thorough analysis and modeling of novel long incubation diseases with largely unknown etiology. BSE in British cattle is the primary example system presented, but application to other diseases, particularly the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (e.g., Scrapie in sheep and nvCJD in humans) are also highlighted. The book concentrates on presenting an exposition of the "state-of-the-art" rather than introductory material on the mathematical/statistical modeling of infectious diseases.
 

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Contents

Preface
10
Sources of data
25
formulation
37
results and sensitivity
59
Individual survival models
85
results
97
Spatiotemporal correlation and disease
111
Metapopulation models
145
Predictions and scenario analysis for vCJD
163
Future directions
195
References
203
Author index
217
Copyright

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Page 10 - highlight the assumptions required and the limitations of available data, and put the methods used into the context of other epidemiological and statistical models of infectious disease.
Page 10 - techniques utilised to estimate parameters and to make projections of future trends in BSE and vCJD incidence both in terms of cases and infections.

About the author (1999)

Donnelly\, C A; Ferguson\, N M

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