Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for EpidemicsBovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) or "mad cow disease," first diagnosed in late 1986, is transmitted through feed, indirect horizontal transmission, apparently maternally and possibly horizontally, through cattle-to-cattle contact or a contaminated environment. With no ante-mortem test yet developed, the only information available about BSE is from case surveillance and a limited number of experiments. Only through careful and rigorous modeling and analysis can reliable estimates of past infection and predictions of future cases be made. The modeling developed for BSE utilizes a range of techniques from statistics, ecology, and demography that is of interest both as a case study and for providing tools for other modeling projects. Statistical Aspects of BSE and vCJD: Models for Epidemics presents the general methodology required for thorough analysis and modeling of novel long incubation diseases with largely unknown etiology. BSE in British cattle is the primary example system presented, but application to other diseases, particularly the transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (e.g., Scrapie in sheep and nvCJD in humans) are also highlighted. The book concentrates on presenting an exposition of the "state-of-the-art" rather than introductory material on the mathematical/statistical modeling of infectious diseases. |
Contents
Preface | 10 |
Sources of data | 25 |
formulation | 37 |
results and sensitivity | 59 |
Individual survival models | 85 |
results | 97 |
Spatiotemporal correlation and disease | 111 |
Metapopulation models | 145 |
Predictions and scenario analysis for vCJD | 163 |
Future directions | 195 |
| 203 | |
| 217 | |
Common terms and phrases
age group age-dependent susceptibility/exposure distribution analysis animals born assuming back-calculation models basic reproduction birth cohort bovine bovine spongiform encephalopathy Britain BSE epidemic BSE-affected calves cattle Chapter clinical onset clinical signs clustering confidence intervals confirmed BSE correlation Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease database density disease onset distribution of form Donnelly dose effectiveness epidemiological estimated expected number exposure feed risk feed units feed-borne infection Ferguson Figure fitted force of infection function genetic genotype goodness-of-fit herd heterogeneity horizontal transmission incidence data incidence of BSE incubation period distribution incubation stage infected animals infection hazard likelihood ratio maternal cohort study maximum likelihood Neibergs Northern Ireland observed offal onset of clinical parameters pattern per-capita incidence population potential predicted prion probability ruminant feed ban sample scale scenario scenario analysis scrapie signs of BSE slaughtered spatial spongiform encephalopathy stochastic stratified survival analysis survival models susceptibility class tion tissue transmission route TSEs vCJD epidemic within-holding
Popular passages
Page 10 - highlight the assumptions required and the limitations of available data, and put the methods used into the context of other epidemiological and statistical models of infectious disease.
Page 10 - techniques utilised to estimate parameters and to make projections of future trends in BSE and vCJD incidence both in terms of cases and infections.
References to this book
Fevers and Cultures: Lessons for Surveillance, Prevention and Control George T. Pollock Limited preview - 2003 |