On Escalation: Metaphors and Scenarios

accept action actually advantage all-out allies analysts areas argue balance of terror bargaining believe bombing capability Chapter cities civilians conflict consider conventional counterforce countervalue course crises crisis Cuba damage dangerous de-escalation decision-makers declaration defense deliberate destroy destruction détente deterrence discussion doomsday machine East Germany effect emergency-readiness enemy eruption escalation ladder escalatory Europe European evacuation example exemplary attack exemplary central fact fear game of chicken German Herman Kahn Hudson Institute important increase intense kind least less limited major military missiles nation NATO negotiations normal North Vietnam nuclear threshold nuclear war nuclear weapons objective opponent opponent's options particular peace phony war political population possible pre-emptive pressure probably problems programs provocation reasonable relatively reprisal retaliation risks scenarios seems serious side side's situation slow-motion Soviet Union spasm strategic forces strike tactics targets thermonuclear threat threaten tion United upper rungs violence World War II