Uncertain judgements : eliciting experts' probabilities
Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably
1 online resource (xiii, 321 pages) : illustrations
9780470033319, 9780470033302, 9780470029992, 9781280648878, 9786610648870, 0470033312, 0470033304, 0470029994, 1280648872, 6610648875
85785187
Fundamentals of probability and judgement
The elicitation context
The psychology of judgement under uncertainty
The elicitation of probabilities
Eliciting distributions : general
Eliciting and fitting a parametric distribution
Eliciting distributions : uncertainty and imprecision
Evaluating elicitation
Multiple experts
Published examples of the formal elicitation of expert opinion
Guidance on best practice
Areas for research
English