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Loading... The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section: "On Robustness and Fragility" (Incerto) (original 2007; edition 2010)by Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Author)This book would have benefited greatly from being about 2/3 shorter than it is. Taleb has some interesting ideas here, but not enough to sustain a book as long as the one he has written. I ploughed all the way through it for the nuggets, but it was a chore to do so. Also, as other readers here have noted, his arrogance eventually becomes a distraction. If you want to read this, check it out from the library and skim it. Don't pay for it. While the book covers some important topics and provides some solid insight, it takes far too long to make its points. Plus, the author is an arrogant blowhard who goes out of his way to disparage and insult broad classes of people. The book covers these points (among others): * Some risk domains are hugely affected by outlier events * Many self-proclaimed experts use models that diminish the importance of these events. * These outliers cannot be predicted; the only reasonable approaches are to avoid them or to protect against them (insurance, options, etc.). That's about all you need to know. Real rating (4.65) is taken from an objective calculation. Review extended source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CQPvUzkid_m587YlmGtf3Eu_app5ZP2a/view?usp=shari... Questions from the Orientation Phase 1. What is the overall structure and organization of the book? Again, very broadly and briefly. Just to give a general sense. In the first section of the book, Taleb goes into a few of the fallacies and faults of the human mind. In the second section he goes into errors the mind makes when reasoning with regards to predicting the future (i.e., the stock market) specifically. In the third section Taleb goes into detail explaining the swans that exist (white, black, gray) compared to the different environments (Mediocristan, Extremistan). In the last chapter before the postscript, he gives some advice on how to deal with all the different swans for a more anti-fragile life. The postscript essay is a more technical discussion of the concepts meant for those who “studied too much” to accept the implications. I have personally skimmed this section and can’t go into detail about what is said. I might read this section in-depth later on if I deem it worthy for my own goals. 2. What are the main topics or themes discussed in the book? The main theme can be stated as uncertainty with regards to human reasoning and prediction of the future. The primary topics the author goes into are the different swans: White Swans (common, predictable events with low consequences) Gray Swans (rare but mildly difficult predictable events with high consequences) Black Swans (super rare and nearly impossible to predict events with extreme consequences) Taleb mentions that white swans are more prevalent in a Mediocristan environment as opposed to an Extremistan environment where Black Swans are present the most. The Mediocristan environment can be defined as an environment where one item in a dataset does not impact the average too much, i.e., it’s linear. Think of for example weight or length; in a dataset of 20 people, even the fattest person does not bring the average too high. In contrast, the Extremistan environment can be stated to be non-linear and highly complex. Here it is possible that in a dataset of 20 people, or even a few million people, one person is responsible for more than 90% of the complete set and thus impacts the average significantly. An obvious example of this is net worth. Taleb continues to argue that statistical measures such as the bell curve are only useful in Mediocristan type environments, where Gaussian randomness rules; a non-scalable randomness, the rate of decline or increase changes. However, in an Extremistan environment, there is scalable Mandelbrotian randomness; the rate of decline or increase is constant, no matter at which level one is. Taleb argues it is best to acknowledge that we as humans can’t predict Black Swans in most cases, and especially can’t predict Extremistan futures; we have no way of predicting society in a few years, or the stock market, or technological advancements, or the finances of a country, etc. 3. What is the author's main argument or thesis? State this briefly. The author’s main argument is that we should not try to predict Extremistan futures, it’s impossible to do. Instead, he argues, we should be robust again them; defend against negative black swans; therefore do not make risk-taking decisions based on chance, but rather on consequence. In addition, he argues that we should not apply Gaussian measurements to environments where Mandelbrotian randomness is at work, he calls this epistemic arrogance; thinking too much of what we know. A different way of stating the thesis of the book is to say that Taleb scolds the oversimplification of reality that we as humans are subject to, unless we consciously change this. In complex Extremistan environments, there are by far way too many factors, both known and unknown, involved to accurately make predictions. He uses a concept coined platonicism here to indicate a human’s erroneous need for over-categorization. 4. What is the writing style or tone used by the author? The author writes in a style suitable to the general public while making use of funny anecdotes and narratives, even though Taleb argues against narratives, or at least the narrative fallacy (giving a cause-and-effect explanations to random details and events), he finds it a valuable tool to convey knowledge. 5. How would you classify the book? This is not as straight forward as distinguishing fiction from non-fiction, but rather to distinguish multiple forms of expository works from each other (those that intend to convey knowledge). a. Is this book theoretical or practical in nature? Does it intend to tell you how to do something, or what is the case? Or is there a degree of both? b. Is the book science, philosophy, history, or math, etc.? Of course, there can be a degree of both, just like with theory vs practice. It’s a primarily theoretical book with practical implications and advice. It’s a scientific book by nature. Questions from the Conceptualization Phase 1. What is the unity of the whole book? Answer this as briefly as possible, at most a few sentences (short paragraph) — In other words, what is the book’s main theme or point? Comparable to the plot of a novel. Adler and van Doren mention that it’s often the case you will also mention the (major) parts while formulating the whole, as can be seen in below extended examples. You can almost see this as the formula of the book; Adler gives a romance example in the following way: Boy meets girl, boy loses girl, boy gets girl. He also gives an example of a practical book, titled The Wealth of Nations, authored by Adam Smith: This is an inquiry into the source of national wealth in any economy that is built on a division of labor, considering the relation of the wages paid labor, the profits returned to capital, and the rent owed the landowner, as the prime factors in the price of commodities. It discusses the various ways in which capital can be more or less gainfully employed, and relates to the origin and use of money to the accumulation and employment of capital. Examining the development of opulence in different nations and under different conditions, it compares the several systems of political economy, and argues for the beneficence of free trade. An extended example for a theoretical scientific book he gives on Darwin’s The Origin of Species: This is an account of the variation of living things during the course of countless generations and the way in which this results in new groupings of plants and animals; it treats both of the variability of domesticated animals and of variability under natural conditions, showing how such factors as the struggle for existence and natural selection operate to bring about and sustain such groupings; it argues that species are not fixed and immutable groups, but that they are merely varieties in transition from a less to a more marked and permanent status, supporting this argument by evidences from extinct animals found in the earth’s crust, and from comparative embryology and anatomy. This is an account of the flaws in human reasoning when it comes to attempting to predict the future. It does so by explaining certain fallacies we often, unconsciously, commit while reasoning. The author primarily cautions against inductive reasoning and instead argues for a more deductive approach. The author distinguishes between two types of environments, one where events and randomness are simplistic in nature and quite predictable, the Mediocristan environment, and one where events and randomness are highly complex and nearly impossible to predict, the Extremistan environment. The work is centered in the latter, as the main concept of the book, The Black Swan, an event that is almost impossible to predict yet bears enormous consequences, either positive or negative, is prevalent only in the Extremistan environment. In a linear, simplistic, environment, outliers do not have a major impact, argues the author. The work discusses the nature of the Black Swan, as well as its counterparts, the White and Gray Swans, why they exist, what their impact is, and it gives advice on how to adequately deal with them. The author furthermore explains two types of randomness: Gaussian randomness, which is scalable, and is applicable to Mediocristan environments, and Mandelbrotian randomness, which is non-scalable and is applicable to Extremistan environments. The author scorns so-called “experts” who foolishly apply Gaussian measurements, such as the famous bell-curve, to Extremistan environments. In particular, the author argues against listening to “experts” who attempt to predict the stock market or other financial systems as it is impossible to do so, and an expert prediction is usually only slightly better than that of a cab-driver, as he shows. Instead, the author suggests acknowledging that we cannot predict extreme events, so we should not rely on overly complex predictive models, and become robust against them; preventing risk not based on chance but on consequence. 2. What are the major parts of the book and how are these organized into a whole by being ordered to one another and to the unity of the whole? We answer this question by manner of outline. At times, after answering this question, you want to refine the unity as stated above. Feel free to do so. It’s essential to keep in mind that you can use the book’s headings and sub-headings as guidance, but you shouldn’t overrely on it... The primary point is to think for yourself, what happens in the mind determines the quality of comprehension and retention. The first part of the book sets the stage by making us aware of the limits of our knowledge as well as certain fallacies we commit and biases we have. In the second part, we dive into the meat of the work by going into the depths of why prediction, in an Extremistan environment, is a fool’s errand. In the third part, the book explains to us the error of using certain statistical measures in an Extremistan environment as well as the different types of randomness. In the fourth part, a single chapter, the book gives us some advice on how to deal with all the previous knowledge, it is the practical summarization. In the postscript, the work gives a more technical explanation of the concepts and implications for those that did not understand it in the prior parts, the author recommends most people to skim or even skip certain chapters here, before finally giving more practical advice for the individual and society as a whole. Everything considered, the organization is well done and provides a good guidance into understanding both the tree and the forest, the concepts and the main points. 3. What are the problems the author is trying to solve? Why did the author write what he wrote? What were his intentions? I believe the author’s intentions were to make the reader aware of the Black Swan and its impact as well as how to deal with it. He also wants to convince us that predicting the future in an Extremistan environment is futile, and often even disastrous. Questions from the Investigation Phase 1. Locate or construct the basic arguments in the book by finding them in the connection of sentences. If the author summarizes his arguments after each chapter, it should be relatively easy to find the arguments leading up to those points in aforementioned chapter. Note: I do not write every single argument he makes here. Just those relevant to the main points, and those that I find prominently positive or negative. Argument against prediction of the future in Extremistan environments A rather profound argument that Taleb makes against predicting the future in complex, non-linear environments is the following: It is impossible to predict either social or economic futures on the merits that they depend largely on advances in science and technology. Technological advancements, or innovations, are impossible to predict in themselves. If one could predict an innovation, the innovation would already be here, for you would know how it worked and thus could build it; therefore, there is no way we can predict innovations and thus any environment that depends on them. An illustration for this is given on page 135 as is said that the three largest innovations of last century (the computer, the internet, and the laser) were “unplanned, unpredicted, and unappreciated upon their discovery.” These innovations were Black Swans; they were nearly unpredictable and had extreme consequences globally. It can be said that most innovations, and even scientific advances, are serendipitous, or dependent on chance, as often advancements in an area are made while looking for something in another area. Another argument Taleb makes against prediction of the future is the narrative fallacy. He argues that humanity often over relies on learning from history in the sense that we give cause-and-effect explanations to Black Swans that have happened. He argues that history does not crawl, but rather jumps, as is evident from the fact that we have made more innovations in the last few centuries than in the entire history of earth. Regardless, even though nobody, or only a few people, for example saw certain wars coming, after “study” it is explained why it is “logical” that it happened, increasing the confidence, especially for “experts”, to predict the next war (the narrative fallacy reminds me very much of the hindsight bias; “I knew it all along.”). People seem to forget that their record of prediction is often extremely flawed. After the First World War, it was common knowledge that Europe would “never see a war on such grand scale again,” yet, not even a century later, World War 2 happened. We tend to overestimate the significance of what we know, instead, Taleb argues, we should be reminded of how much we do not know. Especially when it comes to complex environments, there are a lot of unknown unknowns, factors that impact or cause the event that we don’t even understand or know about. Basically, this fallacy makes that we can’t rely on previous data or information when it comes to predicting the future as it often is far from enough or distorts our view. A prediction must be made beforehand, not afterward. A Black Swan event, according to Taleb, cannot be predicted from its predecessor; a war cannot be predicted by the last war, a market crash cannot be predicted by the last market crash. Argument against the use of predictive models Turkey. Thanks-giving turkey. Dear reader, please don’t be a turkey. Each and every day a turkey gets fed by its human, giving the turkey the idea that the human is taking care of him and is safe, a protector. According to the turkey’s predictive model, based on dozens of days of data, his days of laziness will go on for years and years to come. Until, suddenly, the human protector slaughters the turkey for food. How was this possible? All the numbers from the prediction machine showed that the turkey would be fed for years to come, all previous data pointed towards this. It was impossible for the turkey to not be fed one day. But now the turkey is dead. I have adapted and paraphrased this example from the book itself. It shows why previous data cannot be used to predict the future in an Extremistan environment (the turkey’s slaughtering was a Black Swan event). Extremistan environments are non-linear and highly complex, there are so many factors involved, some, or a lot, not even known to us, therefore it’s impossible to predict based on previous data (in this example only a single metric was used, but the point remains the same). What’s worse is that in a real Extremistan environment, most often calculations are exponential, meaning that the further ahead in time you go, the bigger the effect is. Even the slightest error in value (either to the factors or how the factors influence the calculation) can cause catastrophic errors in the output. Now ask yourself how likely it is that a model can accurately predict the stock market movements, or the society’s future as there are likely millions and millions of factors involved. For the calculation to be accurate, each and every of those factors must be 100% correct, for even a less than 1% error will cause major discrepancies between the predicted outcome and the reality. As mentioned somewhere earlier in the review, the same goes for applying Gaussian measurements to Mandelbrotian randomness type environments, in other words, applying a bell curve to an Extremistan type environment. Any model that uses averages to predict will not work in an Extremistan environment because a single entry can influence 90+% of the average. I will not explain this point more in-depth as it is not relevant to me at this moment, so I refuse to dive deeper into it. If you want to have a deep understanding of this argument, buy the book and read it yourself. 2. What are the author’s solutions to the problems he was trying to solve? Did he raise new problems or questions while solving? Did he manage to solve all problems, or did he fail to solve some? Taleb acknowledges it is impossible to not be a turkey (ignorant) at all times, as it takes a lot of energy to consciously doubt everything that is happening. Therefore, he recommends taking a skeptical attitude only in those areas where it matters to the individual. Taleb advices not to worry about common worries, but moreso about the hidden ones; the Black Swans. He also advices to make use of the Stoic principle of the dichotomy of control, in the sense that a Black Swan will only control you if you let it control you. “Missing a train is only painful when you run after it.” Actual Criticism The Author is Unclear Here and Here, and this is Why In this section, you write down where the author is unclear and why he is so. For further information, refer to the clarity section of either Appendix A or the template introduction. I have found the author to be clear at all times. I have had a few times while reading I had some difficulty understanding a concept, but then I noticed it was explained either more extensively or in a different way later on, or if I compared it to a different idea mentioned elsewhere I would understand it. The book is very well-written. The Author is Illogical Here and Here, and this is Why In this section, you write down where the author is illogical and why he is so. For further information, refer to the logic section of either Appendix A or the template introduction. I have not detected flaws in logic, perhaps if I would spend hours more diving deep into the substance, but this is not worth it to me as this book is not my main area. In fact, if I did not want to give an example for this template, I would probably not have filled out the entire review as extensively as I did for this book in particular. The Author is Misinformed Here and Here, and this is Why In this section, you write down where the author is misinformed and why he is so. For further information, refer to the misinformedness section of either Appendix A or the template introduction. Once again, I have not detected misinformation as this is not my area of expertise. The Author’s Analysis is Incomplete and this is Why In this section, you write down why the author’s analysis is incomplete. For further information, refer to the analysis section of either Appendix A or the template introduction. I believe the analysis of the author is complete, and I know enough to deal with the concepts given. If I need more knowledge, I will read his other books. However, I do feel like the author could’ve given some more coverage to the fact that randomness is not truly random, but rather what we perceive as random is just due to the fact we can’t comprehend the true machine that emits events (the rules) as well as all the factors involved. Regardless, I don’t think it’s relevant enough to his points, though I think it would have given some of his arguments extra weight. The Author is Uninformed Here and Here, and this is Why In this section, you write down where the author is uninformed and why he is so. For further information, refer to the uninformedness section of either Appendix A or the template introduction. I have not detected uninformedness. Other Thoughts In this section, you can write your own thoughts regardless of the template’s prompts. I think the headings Taleb used could’ve been more descriptive. The phrases he used makes the table of contents only useful after having read the book, as beforehand you have no idea what each chapter title means. Final note (unrelated to the book): My main area of research and interest is education and learning. This book is unrelated to that, even though I can use some of the matter here as arguments for my own book Efficient Learning in an Inefficient System: How to become more knowledgeable than your teachers before you leave school. This results in the fact that while I could’ve invested more time and effort into dissecting this book, I will not. I could probably have found inconsistencies, or flaws in logic, or an incomplete analysis if I invested this time and effort, but it is not worth it to me even though I highly like and recommend this book. I have already gotten everything I needed from it. I would likely not have found misinformedness or uninformedness as this is just not my area of expertise. Adler and van Doren argue that a book so good that no flaws can be detected is incredibly rare (some might say a Black Swan), therefore I can virtually guarantee there are flaws with the book, and I just cannot find them with the current time and effort invested. Very dense and philosophical, but the "thought experiments" were interesting. He calls his book "The Black Swan" because until Australia was explored, the western world considered it a fact that all swans were white, but just seeing one black swan made that "fact" false. He makes a strong case that using a bell curve in financial markets is so flawed it is dangerous. Unexpected occurrences (the bubbles, booms and busts)that he class black swans happen far more frequently than the statistical bell curve would predict. A nice, practical synthesis of the various criticisms of mainstream economic theory and the illusion/allure of predictability in general. Taleb also dishes out a lot of criticism of how economists are educated as well as economists in general--particularly those who appear to understand that not everything is a bell curve but compartmentalize that knowledge away from their economic work. As other reviewers have pointed out, much of this thinking has been around for years, in some cases more than a century. Where the author stands out is in putting it into practice, and, of course, having written this book explaining it all. However, while Taleb naturally disagrees with this evaluation, I and others found him to be somewhat arrogant. I also agree with those who feel that the information could have been presented more compactly--though in the author's defense, he stated that he wanted to take time to develop some narratives around these ideas in the hopes of a more powerful presentation. Amusing, anecdotal, insightful, and for the first while, sparkling: the narrative promotes new ways of thinking about how foolish it is to predict anything. Taleb was certainly prescient (it was just prior to the 2008 financial crash): an amazing example of his "Black Swan" metaphor for predicting the highly improbable event, an outlier, an unnoticed negative "what if" aspect, to evaluating probable outcomes. Ultimately, we get the message, and I for one, do agree ~ that good research with appropriate mathematical models to predict a trend, a possible endpoint result, etc., can all be flushed down the loo if a Black Swan appears. A diificulty with the story is that Taleb's theme repeats throughout most of the book, The inability to predict outliers implies the inability to predict the course of history, which I found tedious. After several side trips in his narrative, reader engagement fell off, even though the author's writing was itself very engaging. Despite the caveats, I do recommend the book quite strongly because in many fields of research, not just the world of finance, an improbability overlooked can ruin an entire hypothesis. Food for thought, indeed. 'The subtitle of this book ('the impact of the highly improbable') underlines why it is so relevant to the current pandemic despite the fact that it was published in 2007. Written in accessible prose, 'The Black Swan' gives us simple tools for spotting the elephants on the world stage (and in financial markets). MK This book contains interesting ideas presented in a sometimes ranty, sometime repetitive, and sometimes rambly manner. Overall, I enjoyed it, but I would not necessarily recommend it. Taleb's topic of discussion was the black swan: those events that are not amenable to statistical modeling, at least not the common sort of statistical modeling that assumes that the domain being modeled has gaussian properties. They are highly unpredictable, high impact events, especially those that everyone, after the fact, thinks were perfectly predictable, Taleb spends much the book defining the black swan (and a good portion of it going on about why he likes or dislikes particular intellectuals). Beyond the definition, he comes back time and again to two points. First, black swans are often just a matter of perception. A particular prediction may seem "safe" because the risks are assumed to be so unlikely that they can be ignored. When that "so unlikely" scenario occurs, it's occurrence is a black swan to those who assumed it would never happen. But to those who did not discount the risk so readily, it's what Taleb calls a grey swan -- still unpredictable, but not completely out of the blue. Second, in a world riddled with black swans, a world that is not nearly as tidy and predictable as people would like to see it, what is the best strategy for dealing with risk? To answer this question, it helps to observe that black swans are often asymmetric: either the the maximum positive or maximum negative impact swamps the other. People who are trying to play it safe often try to avoid things with a large positive upside -- those are the things we traditionally call risky -- and instead inadvertently end up relying on those things with a large but invisible negative downside. Taleb recommends switching this mentality: Be on the lookout for negative risks that are being waved away as too unlikely and avoid those things. Instead, put more resources into the higher risk, higher reward scenarios. In other words, don't look for moderate risk bets -- in practice they may be hidden high risk bets. Instead, split yourself between super safe bets (which, in reality are still riskier than you would expect) and bets with high risk and big potential payoff. You'll actually end up more moderate on average than taking the bets that seem moderate but really are not. I don't know if that's a good strategy, but it's certainly an intriguing one to think about. And that really sums up my feelings about this book: I'm not sure if it's good, but it was intriguing. Should be subtitled: How Not to Be a Sucker. I'm not sure why all the negativity about this book, maybe it's a backlash to all the hype it received. It's not a great piece of literature per se but I don't think that was the author's intention. The ideas are well conceived and presented in a manner that is going to get your attention. I personally enjoyed the casual manner of the text in what could be otherwise a pretty soporific subject. The global economic collapse that happened after this book was published makes it's subject all that more profound and certainly Taleb's cheap shots against Wall Street, economists, and politicians in general seem almost prescient. It turns out the majority of the industrial world, including most of us, were suckers when the Black Swan arrived. To be fair, it did take me a couple of shots to stick with the book, but in the end it was worth it. This is a tough book to review. It covers some of my favorite subjects, e.g. fat tails and critical point phenomena in statistical physics. That this book came out just before the great 2008 financial meltdown, and Taleb really sketches out the exact scenario that played out then... amazing, really! Plus Taleb frames all this in a deeper epistemological framework. There are many great insights in this book! The problem I have with the book is that it's scattered, disjointed. Taleb admits as much at the start. It's a bit of a stream of consciousness. He's got a lot of stories and slogans, but never really spends enough time with one before racing on to the next. By the time the reader is at the end of the book, the whole system has been orbited enough times that the terrain is reasonably clear. The writing is pretentious and irritating. Also seemingly incoherent, yet repetitive and loopy. Taleb also seems very confident for a 'skeptic' as he boasts and attacks all those who are 'blind' to his ways and thoughts. All that aside, the book is thought-provoking and does contain some powerful thoughts amidst the swamp of verbiage and irritating asides. I usually reward 5 stars to books that have influenced/changed my thinking patterns and perspectives. For that, as well as myself being (in a way) a student of probability and statistics, I grant this book a 5. For my job, I work in a technical field with high-level people in medical research who make important decisions that impact many. Thus, though I am not a primary decision-maker, anything I can do to better understand their mindsets and the impact of their decisions benefits my organization and my career. It is with this perspective that I approach this book. In it, Taleb uses a rare philosophical approach to business by addressing how we think. Many high-impact events (like, say, 9/11), when forecasted, are immediately and instinctively dismissed as “highly improbable.” Yet they have the potential to shift the future dramatically, for better or for worse. These events, nicknamed “black swans,” receive the focus of this book. This book’s central metaphor comes from an observation many in history made about swans. For a long time, Europeans observed that swans were always white and therefore never black. No one thought to do a conclusive study to prove or disprove the potentiality of black swans. They just made an immediate leap from observation to rule. And that leap was incorrect. Eventually, people saw black swans in Australia. Thus, a highly improbable event happened (fortunately without life-or-death impact). Managing risk is a central theme in the modern world. Rare events often prove to be a crux of history. Most of the time, those events are originally dismissed because they do not meet the center of a bell curve. Nonetheless, because of their potential to have great impact, planning for these events should be attended to. Through philosophical discussion, Taleb seeks to change our thoughts to instead focus on these events as potentially impactful. He relies on research of the mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot (of fractal fame) to illustrate how seemingly unlikely random events occur when looked at prospectively. Professionally, I spend a lot of time with data and value Gaussian bell curves immensely for biomedical applications. However, I also recognize their limitations – especially, that the data has to be shown to be “normal” to begin with in order for Gaussian analysis to be valid. Many behavioral and financial researchers skip this step of rigor in their statistical analysis. Taleb is writing for a business/finance market that can dismiss outcomes as improbable. The biomedical world, of course, has its own black swans in the form of adverse health events (like cancer), but the threat of litigation and cultural accountability often keep these events on the forefront of diagnostic minds. Nonetheless, it’s good practice to consider potential outcomes when considering risk, regardless of small probabilities. Taleb addresses this thought process directly in this book and seeks to help us all manage an uncertain world more wisely. I just didn't like this book enough to take the time to provide a review. My stubbornness was the only reason I ended up finishing the book. Nassim makes the point that random, unexpected events can and do occur, and that we have to recognize that in our evaluations. But he could have done this in a short magazine article. To me, he just beat the idea to death. At times this is a difficult to read polemic on uncertainty. Paragraph whilst the authors charm and obvious erudition come through it is not the easiest of books to read. I do find some parts of it difficult to follow and I would recommend not reading this when tired. However some of the stipulations suppositions and theories within our very intriguing and definitely worthwhile looking at. Selfishness I cannot recall another book where the author praises himself more while continually dismissing the work of others. This running comparison of the author's brilliance with the incompetence of others would be easier to swallow if he had provided references to his and others' work. (Names of the author's friends and his life experiences are not adequate references.) The primary example upon which he based the book (the turkey story) is a beautiful example of statistics with a sample size of one! With no more data than one turkey's growth and death records a year for each of the past few years (or a few turkeys from last year), elementary statistics would be adequate to predict the turkey's Black Swan event to the day. I think this book is great because Taleb's ideas introduce me to a set of concepts I have never encountered before. This originality, more than anything else, probably makes his books worth reading. That said, I think that the text rambles quite a bit and could have been more concise. I would also have appreciated some footnotes/appendices on supporting technical details -- I guess I should look at his upcoming book "Silent Risk" for those aspects. This is a complicated book. I don't often need three months to complete 450 pages but this one book could not be digested in large chunks. It has been sitting at the bed waiting for me to gather enough energy to consume a bit more. This is really a continuation of Taleb's earlier work, focusing on the economics outside the models. The main theme is that everyone in economy is ignoring the extreme outliers, pretending they will not happen and if they happen, models are slightly adjusted to just fit the new data point. The thesis is that extreme outliers matter a lot, and many will be killed (economically or literally) by them. Timely enough, in the first edition from 2007 he mentioned the debt crisis (which crashed the American markets in 2008) as one such thing, though he barely cared about it since it was so obvious, and obvious things are not black swans for him. A black swan is something you personally think can/will never happen. The book is very verbose and it's easy to be annoyed by the author's arrogance but the message is valuable so there is a reason to go ahead. The author also accuses most everyone else of arrogance which is a bit entertaining. I am sure he is making as many enemies as friends. I read the second edition which contains an extra 50-100 pages of commentary on the first edition. Pointing out common misunderstandings, events that followed and similar. That part is much easier to read and explains parts that could easily have been misunderstood in the earlier part. As in his Fooled Randomness book, Taleb doesn't mark his statements with many sources, and instead have an extensive literature list at the end. He does namedrop a lot though, but unless you are more versed in philosophy than I am, it's hard to judge his interpretations of ancient, and less ancient, philosophers. I would not recommend this book on just anyone, but it will certainly affect what I say and do. |
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This book’s central metaphor comes from an observation many in history made about swans. For a long time, Europeans observed that swans were always white and therefore never black. No one thought to do a conclusive study to prove or disprove the potentiality of black swans. They just made an immediate leap from observation to rule. And that leap was incorrect. Eventually, people saw black swans in Australia. Thus, a highly improbable event happened (fortunately without life-or-death impact).
Managing risk is a central theme in the modern world. Rare events often prove to be a crux of history. Most of the time, those events are originally dismissed because they do not meet the center of a bell curve. Nonetheless, because of their potential to have great impact, planning for these events should be attended to. Through philosophical discussion, Taleb seeks to change our thoughts to instead focus on these events as potentially impactful. He relies on research of the mathematician Benoît Mandelbrot (of fractal fame) to illustrate how seemingly unlikely random events occur when looked at prospectively.
Professionally, I spend a lot of time with data and value Gaussian bell curves immensely for biomedical applications. However, I also recognize their limitations – especially, that the data has to be shown to be “normal” to begin with in order for Gaussian analysis to be valid. Many behavioral and financial researchers skip this step of rigor in their statistical analysis. Taleb is writing for a business/finance market that can dismiss outcomes as improbable. The biomedical world, of course, has its own black swans in the form of adverse health events (like cancer), but the threat of litigation and cultural accountability often keep these events on the forefront of diagnostic minds. Nonetheless, it’s good practice to consider potential outcomes when considering risk, regardless of small probabilities. Taleb addresses this thought process directly in this book and seeks to help us all manage an uncertain world more wisely. ( )